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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:51 pm 
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Quote:
[Japan] is really amazing, I’ve always loved it here.

But Japan has been suffering for a long, long time, both socially and economically. The two go hand in hand.

That makes this place the most important case study in the world.

Because everything that Japan did back in the 70s and 80s to cause these long-term social and economic problems is EXACTLY what most of the West is doing now: printing money, keeping rates too low, inflating asset bubbles, going into debt, and acting like the good times will last forever.

It would be utterly foolish to believe that this time is different.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-22/japan-so-broke-its-prisons-are-full-80-year-old-felons


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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:09 am 
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Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31839
Location: Tullamore
Inis Man wrote:
Quote:
[Japan] is really amazing, I’ve always loved it here.

But Japan has been suffering for a long, long time, both socially and economically. The two go hand in hand.

That makes this place the most important case study in the world.

Because everything that Japan did back in the 70s and 80s to cause these long-term social and economic problems is EXACTLY what most of the West is doing now: printing money, keeping rates too low, inflating asset bubbles, going into debt, and acting like the good times will last forever.

It would be utterly foolish to believe that this time is different.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-22/japan-so-broke-its-prisons-are-full-80-year-old-felons

Hmmm, no; it's only after the crash that Japan went into deflation and tried everything to get out of it. And as a result prevented total collapse, but also the crash reaching clearing prices. They've extended the crash (and the age-related secular decline) to astonishing lengths. Yes, the west have done it, and yes, they're trapped at the zero bound. The answer for deflation is wage increases. That's the only sort of inflation that matters. Nobody tries that, preferring the trickle to the 1%...

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:59 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
The answer for deflation is wage increases.

Along with productivity gains.

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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:05 am 
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Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31839
Location: Tullamore
ps200306 wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
The answer for deflation is wage increases.

Along with productivity gains.

You won't get productivity gains with the move to 'apps' :(
o365 is negative productivity compared to previous on-system versions. I reckon productivity peaked about 10 years ago with the perfect balance of hardware speed/software capabilities. The whole AAS thing is wildly oversold and years of business IT departments integrating disparate systems has been thrown away. Permanent business advantage has been outsourced to lowest common denominator apps on a 'smart' phone. Rigid Artificial Idiots (nothing more than scripted responses) have replaced flexible people (actually replaced scripted helpdesk responses, and you thought they were bad?).
Still, a few years of this will give the younger generation some scope to fix it and maybe there'll be a return to permanent jobs.

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"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

So long and thanks for all the fish.


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 Post subject: Re: Japan: Bubble prophet fears new disaster
PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:49 am 
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Joined: Aug 19, 2011
Posts: 872
5/12/2018 Harry Dent - Japan Real Estate Crisis



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