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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:08 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
The AIB portfolio is of BTL and Commercial Mortgages. Their home loan portfolio was the best among the Irish Banks.


AIB are charging a whopping 6% BTL rate now - I presume this is for new customers.

I know this is down to risk weights imposed by the regulator due to the awful default rates on historical BTLs in Ireland. But that was from an era with interest-only periods, poor underwriting standards and 100% lending.

I know this is down to risk weights imposed by the regulator due to the awful default rates on historical BTLs in Ireland. But that was from an era with interest-only periods, poor underwriting standards and 100% lending.

Mortgage finance has tax advantages, but at double the rate prevailing for owner occupiers, I can't see why anyone who wasn't already up to their neck in cash getting into the BTL business.

How risky is a BTL which is 50% at origination today? I would say not very. It's pretty robust to a drop in house prices and/or a long period of arrears. BTL apartments in particular are generally more liquid and easier to reposess too, none of your "de fambilee home" stuff.

New build needs a buyer at the far end, and not just owner occupiers. I just can't see the sums stacking up for an investor.

No surprise we're building so little.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:50 pm 
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Q3 2018

There be 730,000 Home Mortgages
500,000+ are fully performing and were not rescheduled etc. Maybe they had a bad month here and there but they sorted that out.
115,000 were reworked of which 87% are now compliant with whatever the arrangement is.
65,000 are in arrears of less than 90 days. (some included in the figure ante as the arrangement failed)
28,000 are in arrears of over 720 days, this figure is not really reducing like all the rest.

I would wager that fully 25,000 out of the 28,000 in arrears over 720 days are actually in arrears over 2000 days by now. The forbearance instead of repossession regime started at least 8 years ago if not 9 :)

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1219/10180 ... e-arrears/

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:08 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
I would wager that fully 25,000 out of the 28,000 in arrears over 720 days are actually in arrears over 2000 days by now. The forbearance instead of repossession regime started at least 8 years ago if not 9 :)


I'd agree with you. I'd say they left it at 720 days on purpose so as not to highlight those 3, 4, 5+ years in arrears - as this would reflect badly on Central Bank's inability to get banks to sort those out


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:13 pm 
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Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q3 2018 figures

(Note 1: BTL figures are discussed separately here http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic ... 10&t=50546)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic ... 19&t=63422)

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https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default ... ?sfvrsn=10

Arrears

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Repossessions

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Court Proceedings
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Restructures
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Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:27 am 
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@TheJackal, your excellent BTL data analysis also shows that 720+ days probably mainly means 2000+ days too. :)

Combined with the same PPR cohort we have around 40k won't pays ....whether they can pay or not which is a separate discussion. :(

I honestly think that will pays are accounted for in restructures now, we won't speculate on the gap between will pay something and will fully perform given enough time and money, and luck.

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:44 pm 
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Joined: May 21, 2017
Posts: 233
When you lend money to the first citizen of our capital city, you can be assured of repayment in full. Eventually. After numerous court appearances. At least, that's what the headline seems to say.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/c ... 96201.html
I wish someone could translate what the legal eagles told the court

The Mayor's barrister said
Quote:
funds capable of meeting all outstanding debts owed to the bank and its legal costs had been lodged with Mr Ring’s solicitors ready to be transferred to Bank of Ireland Mortgage Bank.


I suppose if you charge in guineas it's hard to talk about money in crude numbers like headline writers with the Indo. There is clarity on one basic point. The Mayor and his wife had
Quote:
three loans for €234,000; €380,000 and €486,000 (totalling €1.1mi)


Their barrister was really earning her fees when she told the court that
Quote:
the extent of the new funds and where and how they had been raised, could not be divulged on the basis it may breach data protection legislation.


I thought the data protection act was, well, protecting our data but it seems to be a prison which locks our data away, even the Lord Mayor can't share basic facts with a Circuit Court Judge! Who makes these laws that prevent the administration of justice in public, even when the creditworthiness of our highest public representative is at issue?

The bank's lawyer was equally obscure. She
Quote:
confirmed that the bank accepted it was to be put in funds for settlement of outstanding debts and the bank's costs


No one put a figure on the bank's legal costs but that would be additional to the mortgage arrears of €527,000 and the judge poured cold water on the bank's hopes for damages

Quote:
The Rings had given the bank an undertaking as to damages which, Judge Linnane said, she thought would not be worth very much bearing in mind the extent of their outstanding debts,


The judge seemed reluctant to drop the case:


Quote:
When Judge Linnane suggested postponing any order to strike out the proceedings until the funds had been transferred from the Rings’ solicitor's account, both parties asked for a brief adjournment to facilitate talks.

Shortly afterwards the court was told the funds had been transferred to the bank but confirmation of the transfer may take a day. Judge Linnane put the matter in for mention again on Monday and was told there would be no need for the court to measure the bank’s legal costs.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:29 pm 
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Joined: Jan 31, 2008
Posts: 1329
De banks and de vultures!

Quote:
"The last payment to this account was on 4th August 2010," she said.


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/c ... 12872.html


Last edited by Bogman on Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:07 pm 
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Bogman wrote:
De banks and de vultures!

Quote:
"The last payment to this account was on 4th August 2010," she said.


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/c ... 12872.html


I wonder if their kids are in private schools. I wouldn't be surprised

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:06 am 
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Bogman wrote:
De banks and de vultures!

Quote:
"The last payment to this account was on 4th August 2010," she said.


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/c ... 12872.html

No such thing as strategic defaulters in Ireland!
They've probably saved close to 300k in rent on a similar property to this over the past 10 years. Not bad


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:35 pm 
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Didn't pay a bob for 9 years. :D

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/c ... 15361.html

Quote:
Restaurateur Ronan Ryan and his wife, former Miss Ireland Pamela Flood, have vowed to leave their home after a 'vulture fund' moved to repossess it.

Mr Ryan told the Irish Independent that they would be "out before the end of the spring".

The Circuit Civil Court heard yesterday that Mr Ryan had not paid anything off his €1.1m mortgage for more than eight years.


but

Quote:
Mr Ryan told the Irish Independent that he had already agreed to sell the property multiple times as part of previous repossession attempts by previous owners of the loan.

He said that deals to sell the house had fallen through, however. "For seven years, we've never stopped agreeing to sell the house."

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