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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:22 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
True, I wouldn't remark if it was one or two but five is noteworthy.
Also it fits with the theory that turning points occur first in the prime end of the market.
Unfashionable postcodes like D5, D10, D17 and D24 are still up double digits year on year. D2, D4, D6 and D14 are either negative or at best up 4% yoy

I agree that the unfashionable areas of Dublin are "catching up" but I don't see this as the start of a downturn in the prime areas.

Two factors are in play, neither of which will result in a sustained downturn. The charts show a clear seasonal pattern of price jumps in the first half of the year as fresh stock with aggressive pricing comes to the market. Asking prices stall in the last quarter, although the y-o-y figures are strongly positive because of double-digit increases in the Spring. Secondly, the more expensive parts of Dublin have hit the ceiling imposed by the Central Bank. Buyers priced out of those areas are taking their mortgages to other areas of Dublin causes prices there to rise until, barring some reversal of fortune (Brexit, Trump, .....), those prices in turn will hit the Central Bank ceiling and the ripples will spread to commuter towns. Similar effects will happen on a smaller scale in other cities, beginning with Cork and Galway. Remarkably, prices in all urban areas have now increased at a very similar rate from their respective troughs i.e. around 150%. Limerick City was last to the party but these charts show that Limerick City has the strongest growth rate since 2014!

It is often said no single monetary policy can fit a diverse area like the the Eurozone but can the Central Bank's macroprudential policy tame our urban housing bubble without destroying rural Ireland where houses are one-quarter of the price? Another couple of years and we will see a return to the commuter misery of the Celtic Tiger as those ghost estates in Cavan and Longford are revived by young workers priced out of Dublin.


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:24 pm 
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Lefournier3 wrote:
Another couple of years and we will see a return to the commuter misery of the Celtic Tiger as those ghost estates in Cavan and Longford are revived by young workers priced out of Dublin.

I already know a couple who have moved to Longford. One child, one income, with the bloke working in Dublin city centre. Strain of the commute is showing.

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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:12 pm 
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I hadn't looked at the rental graphs for last year - I usually get a good feel for what things are like from the people I work for and with in the IT industry - but I noticed a strange thing in the volumes available in Sept/Oct last year. There is normally a pretty dramatic tightening in supply from the combination of students and people starting work (it's the peak time for people changing jobs - they usually take their summer holidays first). There's also other tightenings in April/May when nobody moves and January when nobody advertises. You can see that pattern clearly for 2016 and 2017 and the April/May period for 2018 but there is only a slight dip for Sep/Oct 2018. Now I don't remember noticing any difference in the difficulties that people around me were having in getting accommodation - it was still hugely problematic and there was probably more press coverage than usual - particularly from the MNCs - there was also a lot of talk about landlords giving up - I certainly heard about this first hand from people who experienced it.

Looking at the figures you can see that the supply of houses for rent actually increased - but in the past (2016,2017) it only dipped marginally anyway - so the main difference was in apartments. Anybody have any suggestions as to what might have happened? I thought about Airbnb but I don't think the regulatory changes were really mentioned then. There is also the new student accommodation blocks but I think that has been gradually happening over the last couple of years and I'm not sure of the impact. There has been some increase in supply but I don't think that's enough yet to make a difference.


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:58 pm 
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metalmike wrote:
Looking at the figures you can see that the supply of houses for rent actually increased - but in the past (2016,2017) it only dipped marginally anyway - so the main difference was in apartments. Anybody have any suggestions as to what might have happened? I thought about Airbnb but I don't think the regulatory changes were really mentioned then. There is also the new student accommodation blocks but I think that has been gradually happening over the last couple of years and I'm not sure of the impact. There has been some increase in supply but I don't think that's enough yet to make a difference.


I think some of the student places which opened this year (Liberties area) had substantial capacity (IIRC something like 400 beds in some of them)...a couple of those coming on stream for this academic year would have made an impact on the amount of properties that otherwise would have been taken by them? It would be interesting to see what the occupancy rates are like for these places.


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:16 pm 
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Pretty Charts (more info and links here)


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:48 pm 
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CSO says prices fell or stalled almost everywhere in November 2018. Of course, the headlines focussed on the long-term rate which still include the growth in the first half of 2018. When the monthly number looks stronger, that's what they highlight - funny that. https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-n ... 3-13865889

This could be just a seasonal effect - there have been occasional months of price reductions since the boom returned in 2013 - but I think we've reached the end of rapid price growth. At least, until the Central Bank opens the spigot again.

Here's the monthly view:
https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/Graphics/MakeGraph.asp?menu=y&pxfile=201911622393911034342HPM06.px&gr_type=0&PLanguage=0


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:52 am 
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You can also see the month-on-month changes here.

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