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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:38 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Apr 4, 2010
Posts: 4701
ps200306 wrote:
She pointed out that the Brits were leading proponents of the internal market which they helped architect.


and which they are now condemning. :roll:

What is it they say?
"Failure has a hundred fathers, but success is always an orphan."

Or something like that
XX

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People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.


Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:30 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Jan 19, 2009
Posts: 206
ps200306 wrote:
I thought these guys were spoofing when they introduced themselves. Actually quite a fascinating conversation, even if one can't vouch for it being 100% gospel.



I took a quick look at the first part of this and from what I can see it is generally accurate. One of the first things they touch on is how driving lorries from Britain to the EU will be affected, import/export procedures, changes to insurance etc. It's kind-off interesting how no one is talking about it.

Take an even simpler case. Some guy from Kent driving to Calais to stock up on some drinks and coming back.
A short and non exhaustive list of issues he will face will be:
    * Their driving license is no longer cross recognized. All driving licenses in the EU are issued under EU law which means they are cross recognized in every other country. This is no longer the case after Brexit. Directive 80/1263/EEC.
    * Car insurance is no longer valid. Again, all basic car insurance is valid throughout the EU. This comes to a sudden end if Brexit continues. Directive 2009/§03/EC
    * Cross recognition of motor tax comes to an end.
    * Recognition of safety standards: MOT/NCT etc.

Once he gets to France he is breaking a whole slew of traffic laws. If he gets stopped by a cop, he has no license, no MOT or equivalent, no tax and no insurance. For some reasons I don't think this is going to end well for him.

If the guy manages to get across the channel tunnel. And if he gets to an off license and fills up the car with bottles and back to the tunnel without trouble, he is then liable for import duty tax on the bottles on the return trip.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:51 pm 
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Back Home with Mammy

Joined: Oct 7, 2017
Posts: 63
[quote="
Take an even simpler case. Some guy from Kent driving to Calais to stock up on some drinks and coming back.
A short and non exhaustive list of issues he will face will be:
    * Their driving license is no longer cross recognized. All driving licenses in the EU are issued under EU law which means they are cross recognized in every other country. This is no longer the case after Brexit. Directive 80/1263/EEC.
    * Car insurance is no longer valid. Again, all basic car insurance is valid throughout the EU. This comes to a sudden end if Brexit continues. Directive 2009/§03/EC
    * Cross recognition of motor tax comes to an end.
    * Recognition of safety standards: MOT/NCT etc.

Once he gets to France he is breaking a whole slew of traffic laws. If he gets stopped by a cop, he has no license, no MOT or equivalent, no tax and no insurance. For some reasons I don't think this is going to end well for him.

If the guy manages to get across the channel tunnel. And if he gets to an off license and fills up the car with bottles and back to the tunnel without trouble, he is then liable for import duty tax on the bottles on the return trip.[/quote]

Oh my God!!
This is a perfect example of project fear and exaggeration, people visit the EU from all over the world including US, Russia and Aus and all manage to drive using there licenses.
At the moment plenty of people drive vehicles from non EU countries into the EU and don't have an issue.
At the most it may involve some extra insurance but that is it, stop regurgitating the usual remained tosh,


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:15 pm 
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Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31767
Location: Tullamore
NorthDub Paul wrote:
Oh my God!!
This is a perfect example of project fear and exaggeration, people visit the EU from all over the world including US, Russia and Aus and all manage to drive using there licenses.
At the moment plenty of people drive vehicles from non EU countries into the EU and don't have an issue.
At the most it may involve some extra insurance but that is it, stop regurgitating the usual remained tosh,

Erm, and that is all covered by bilateral agreements.
The point of all this, is that there's 40 years of EU law and bilateral agreements. Some countries have looser agreements than others, but take the UK; if you're not EU, EEA, Gibraltar, then you can drive:
https://www.gov.uk/driving-nongb-licenc ... er-country
Quote:
You can drive any small vehicle (eg car or motorcycle) listed on your full and valid licence for 12 months from when you last entered Great Britain (GB)

If you’ve got a bus or lorry licence you can only drive buses or lorries that are registered outside Great Britain if you’ve actually driven the vehicle into Great Britain yourself.


France is complicated, even now, but ameliorated by EU mutual recognition:
https://www.justlanded.com/english/Fran ... ng-Licence

In the US, the rules vary by state:
https://www.usa.gov/visitors-driving
Quote:
People who drive in the U.S. must have a valid driver's license. Some states require an International Driving Permit (IDP) from foreign nationals, in addition to a valid license from your own country. Contact the motor vehicle department of each state you will drive in for its requirements.


Sounds like you've been listening to Project Ostrich too much! The idea that because you've never known any different, that all your current freedoms will remain in a foreign country is not true. If you come out of one agreement, you must either make another agreement or have no agreement. No agreement means a return to IDP, which I remember my dad getting when we went on holiday to France years ago, along with money limits for foreign exchange and travellers cheques. Oh and visas... the joy of spending half a day queuing in an embassy waiting for your turn to plead for a short-stay visitors visa.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:22 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Sep 9, 2017
Posts: 281
When there is so much at stake, business, public disorder etc. laws can and will be enacted to ease the flow of business, people and trade. We know this. Even if it meant the house of commons sitting until 3am night after night to get emergency laws through. Where there is a will, there is a way.

The fact that nobody is working on this, 9 months out from the 29th March is why I've become fairly convinced the efforts to date are mere tokenism, not necessarily pure incompetence, and nobody seriously expects to leave in a big bang next 29th March. The can is being kicked down the road until it is in any way palatable to hold a second vote, without a civil war occuring.

With so much involved, nobody is that feckless or incompetent on that sort of scale.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:29 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3622
Location: Bogtrotterland!
Epicurus wrote:
When there is so much at stake, business, public disorder etc. laws can and will be enacted to ease the flow of business, people and trade. We know this. Even if it meant the house of commons sitting until 3am night after night to get emergency laws through. Where there is a will, there is a way.

The fact that nobody is working on this, 9 months out from the 29th March is why I've become fairly convinced the efforts to date are mere tokenism, not necessarily pure incompetence, and nobody seriously expects to leave in a big bang next 29th March. The can is being kicked down the road until it is in any way palatable to hold a second vote, without a civil war occuring.

With so much involved, nobody is that feckless or incompetent on that sort of scale.

Exactly, Just like during the so called global financial crisis, the rule book was driven over with a coach and horses.
Things will carry on until superseded, otherwise there would be a real crisis that could probably involve bringing out the army.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:40 pm 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Mar 14, 2013
Posts: 1925
yoganmahew wrote:
NorthDub Paul wrote:
Oh my God!!
This is a perfect example of project fear and exaggeration, people visit the EU from all over the world including US, Russia and Aus and all manage to drive using there licenses.
At the moment plenty of people drive vehicles from non EU countries into the EU and don't have an issue.
At the most it may involve some extra insurance but that is it, stop regurgitating the usual remained tosh,

Erm, and that is all covered by bilateral agreements.
The point of all this, is that there's 40 years of EU law and bilateral agreements. Some countries have looser agreements than others, but take the UK; if you're not EU, EEA, Gibraltar, then you can drive:
https://www.gov.uk/driving-nongb-licenc ... er-country
Quote:
You can drive any small vehicle (eg car or motorcycle) listed on your full and valid licence for 12 months from when you last entered Great Britain (GB)

If you’ve got a bus or lorry licence you can only drive buses or lorries that are registered outside Great Britain if you’ve actually driven the vehicle into Great Britain yourself.


France is complicated, even now, but ameliorated by EU mutual recognition:
https://www.justlanded.com/english/Fran ... ng-Licence

In the US, the rules vary by state:
https://www.usa.gov/visitors-driving
Quote:
People who drive in the U.S. must have a valid driver's license. Some states require an International Driving Permit (IDP) from foreign nationals, in addition to a valid license from your own country. Contact the motor vehicle department of each state you will drive in for its requirements.


Sounds like you've been listening to Project Ostrich too much! The idea that because you've never known any different, that all your current freedoms will remain in a foreign country is not true. If you come out of one agreement, you must either make another agreement or have no agreement. No agreement means a return to IDP, which I remember my dad getting when we went on holiday to France years ago, along with money limits for foreign exchange and travellers cheques. Oh and visas... the joy of spending half a day queuing in an embassy waiting for your turn to plead for a short-stay visitors visa.

Good summary, there are measures which could be put in place once everyone is working together to get it sorted in a crash out situation. Oh wait.
Better get the international licence application in and pay the extra tax insurance etc etc. Some countries might have more flexibility in their current legislation and general view on regulation but you still have to cross France and Germany. Question is, whos taking the horse to Haydock.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:14 pm 
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Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31767
Location: Tullamore
werpen wrote:
Question is whos taking the horse to Haydock.

Right! It's all very well to say that the House of Commons could sit until 3am, but what if nobody else does? These are reciprocal agreements and unless Britain agrees them with the EU, with the relevant bodies etc. they will not have any legislation to pass.

Where they do get agreement, given the short timescales, it'll likely be entry level - whatever the minimum level is. That's hardly a recipe for continuity, it's a whole different set of rules to abide by.

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So long and thanks for all the fish.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:18 pm 
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Back Home with Mammy

Joined: Mar 1, 2017
Posts: 71
yoganmahew wrote:
The point of all this, is that there's 40 years of EU law and bilateral agreements.

No there isnt.
The EU has emerged from the EEC, thence into the the EC in 1993 via Maastrict until it was revoked in 2009 and the EU emerged with the Lisbon Treaty in 2009.

The EU is 9 years old.

Epicurus wrote:
When there is so much at stake, business, public disorder etc. laws can and will be enacted to ease the flow of business, people and trade. We know this. Even if it meant the house of commons sitting until 3am night after night to get emergency laws through. Where there is a will, there is a way.

The fact that nobody is working on this, 9 months out from the 29th March is why I've become fairly convinced the efforts to date are mere tokenism, not necessarily pure incompetence, and nobody seriously expects to leave in a big bang next 29th March. The can is being kicked down the road until it is in any way palatable to hold a second vote, without a civil war occuring.

With so much involved, nobody is that feckless or incompetent on that sort of scale.


This.

dolanbaker wrote:
Exactly, Just like during the so called global financial crisis, the rule book was driven over with a coach and horses.
Things will carry on until superseded, otherwise there would be a real crisis that could probably involve bringing out the army.


And this.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:44 am 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Jan 14, 2009
Posts: 686
Sosthenes wrote:
No there isnt.
The EU has emerged from the EEC, thence into the the EC in 1993 via Maastrict until it was revoked in 2009 and the EU emerged with the Lisbon Treaty in 2009.

The EU is 9 years old.


Lol.

You can't be that condescending and that wrong at the same time. Pick one.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:31 am 
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Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10693
Sosthenes wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
The point of all this, is that there's 40 years of EU law and bilateral agreements.

No there isnt.
The EU has emerged from the EEC, thence into the the EC in 1993 via Maastrict until it was revoked in 2009 and the EU emerged with the Lisbon Treaty in 2009.

The EU is 9 years old.


There's over 60 years of EU legislation, going back to the Treaty of Rome. It's been amended but not revoked. Same goes for the treaty of Maastricht. [See its 'in force' status on EUR-Lex]

Quote:
Two core functional treaties, the Treaty on European Union (originally signed in Maastricht in 1992) and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (originally signed in Rome in 1957 as the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community), lay out how the EU operates, and there are a number of satellite treaties which are interconnected with them. The treaties have been repeatedly amended by other treaties over the 65 years since they were first signed. The consolidated version of the two core treaties is regularly published by the European Commission. Wikipedia

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:28 pm 
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Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31767
Location: Tullamore
Evil_g wrote:
Sosthenes wrote:
No there isnt.
The EU has emerged from the EEC, thence into the the EC in 1993 via Maastrict until it was revoked in 2009 and the EU emerged with the Lisbon Treaty in 2009.

The EU is 9 years old.


Lol.

You can't be that condescending and that wrong at the same time. Pick one.

Indeed, wow! :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:42 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Jan 19, 2009
Posts: 206
Epicurus wrote:
The fact that nobody is working on this, 9 months out from the 29th March is why I've become fairly convinced the efforts to date are mere tokenism, not necessarily pure incompetence, and nobody seriously expects to leave in a big bang next 29th March. The can is being kicked down the road until it is in any way palatable to hold a second vote, without a civil war occuring.

With so much involved, nobody is that feckless or incompetent on that sort of scale.



I don't know. There is a big bang next 29th March unless there is at this point an extra ordinary effort put in to avoid it. All treaties, agreements etc come crashing down at that point in time. This is not like most deadlines, which are really only a hint at a date by which which time it is hoped to start negotiations, and then really only start negotiations if something else more interesting doesn't come up in the mean time. This date next March is a different beast altogether which people aren't familiar with. This date is absolute and there is no easy way to extend it. Any deal to avoid this needs to be agreed by EU commission, European Parliament etc and probably most difficult of all it needs to be agreed by the head bangers in the UK Parliament. All this needs to be done before March.

There are only three options on the table now.
1) Extend the duration of A50. Technically this is straight forward, but politically difficult.
2) A custom negotiated deal. Extraordinary difficult technically to organize and is turning out to be all but politically impossible. Besides we seem to be out of time.
3) Crashing out.

Now, obviously if option '1' is taken it will be spun differently. It will be smudged and fudged over to try to give a face saving way out of the situation we find our selves. This though requires everyone to play along. Everyone knows it's a fudge but no one calls it what it is. This fudge requires good faith on everyone's behalf. The UK Parliament though is deadlocked and unable to function at present. There are a large number of its members who seem intent on watching the country burn. There are also those that are doing everything they possibly can to poison relations and seed mistrust.

Two years ago I thought there was a negligible chance of a crash out happening. Now I'm betting it's the most probable option.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:48 pm 
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Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 1216
Location: In the Sandpit.
The Curious One wrote:
I don't know. There is a big bang next 29th March unless there is at this point an extra ordinary effort put in to avoid it. All treaties, agreements etc come crashing down at that point in time.

I would agree, except companies have to take note of their supply chains and orders now, for the future. Airlines are going to be a real obvious indicator. If there's no deal in October, we can start to find things unraveling this year as everyone gears up for March 29.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:52 pm 
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Joined: Oct 22, 2007
Posts: 1853
It won't be just airlines. Long haul sea transport to and from Britain will have to start plannining soon too.

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