Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » The Central Bank

Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 5011 posts ]  [Go to page]   Previous  1 ... 410, 411, 412, 413, 414, 415, 416 ... 502  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:31 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10876
Sosthenes wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
The point of all this, is that there's 40 years of EU law and bilateral agreements.

No there isnt.
The EU has emerged from the EEC, thence into the the EC in 1993 via Maastrict until it was revoked in 2009 and the EU emerged with the Lisbon Treaty in 2009.

The EU is 9 years old.


There's over 60 years of EU legislation, going back to the Treaty of Rome. It's been amended but not revoked. Same goes for the treaty of Maastricht. [See its 'in force' status on EUR-Lex]

Quote:
Two core functional treaties, the Treaty on European Union (originally signed in Maastricht in 1992) and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (originally signed in Rome in 1957 as the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community), lay out how the EU operates, and there are a number of satellite treaties which are interconnected with them. The treaties have been repeatedly amended by other treaties over the 65 years since they were first signed. The consolidated version of the two core treaties is regularly published by the European Commission. Wikipedia

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:28 pm 
Offline
IMF'd

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31893
Location: Tullamore
Evil_g wrote:
Sosthenes wrote:
No there isnt.
The EU has emerged from the EEC, thence into the the EC in 1993 via Maastrict until it was revoked in 2009 and the EU emerged with the Lisbon Treaty in 2009.

The EU is 9 years old.


Lol.

You can't be that condescending and that wrong at the same time. Pick one.

Indeed, wow! :lol:

_________________
"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

So long and thanks for all the fish.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:42 pm 
Offline
Neo Landlord

Joined: Jan 19, 2009
Posts: 217
Epicurus wrote:
The fact that nobody is working on this, 9 months out from the 29th March is why I've become fairly convinced the efforts to date are mere tokenism, not necessarily pure incompetence, and nobody seriously expects to leave in a big bang next 29th March. The can is being kicked down the road until it is in any way palatable to hold a second vote, without a civil war occuring.

With so much involved, nobody is that feckless or incompetent on that sort of scale.



I don't know. There is a big bang next 29th March unless there is at this point an extra ordinary effort put in to avoid it. All treaties, agreements etc come crashing down at that point in time. This is not like most deadlines, which are really only a hint at a date by which which time it is hoped to start negotiations, and then really only start negotiations if something else more interesting doesn't come up in the mean time. This date next March is a different beast altogether which people aren't familiar with. This date is absolute and there is no easy way to extend it. Any deal to avoid this needs to be agreed by EU commission, European Parliament etc and probably most difficult of all it needs to be agreed by the head bangers in the UK Parliament. All this needs to be done before March.

There are only three options on the table now.
1) Extend the duration of A50. Technically this is straight forward, but politically difficult.
2) A custom negotiated deal. Extraordinary difficult technically to organize and is turning out to be all but politically impossible. Besides we seem to be out of time.
3) Crashing out.

Now, obviously if option '1' is taken it will be spun differently. It will be smudged and fudged over to try to give a face saving way out of the situation we find our selves. This though requires everyone to play along. Everyone knows it's a fudge but no one calls it what it is. This fudge requires good faith on everyone's behalf. The UK Parliament though is deadlocked and unable to function at present. There are a large number of its members who seem intent on watching the country burn. There are also those that are doing everything they possibly can to poison relations and seed mistrust.

Two years ago I thought there was a negligible chance of a crash out happening. Now I'm betting it's the most probable option.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:48 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 1216
Location: In the Sandpit.
The Curious One wrote:
I don't know. There is a big bang next 29th March unless there is at this point an extra ordinary effort put in to avoid it. All treaties, agreements etc come crashing down at that point in time.

I would agree, except companies have to take note of their supply chains and orders now, for the future. Airlines are going to be a real obvious indicator. If there's no deal in October, we can start to find things unraveling this year as everyone gears up for March 29.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:52 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 22, 2007
Posts: 1921
It won't be just airlines. Long haul sea transport to and from Britain will have to start plannining soon too.

_________________
No tool is omnicompetent. There is no such thing as a master-key that will unlock all doors.
--Arnold Toynbee

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
--Epictetus


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:35 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3737
Location: Bogtrotterland!
dolanbaker wrote:
Epicurus wrote:
When there is so much at stake, business, public disorder etc. laws can and will be enacted to ease the flow of business, people and trade. We know this. Even if it meant the house of commons sitting until 3am night after night to get emergency laws through. Where there is a will, there is a way.

The fact that nobody is working on this, 9 months out from the 29th March is why I've become fairly convinced the efforts to date are mere tokenism, not necessarily pure incompetence, and nobody seriously expects to leave in a big bang next 29th March. The can is being kicked down the road until it is in any way palatable to hold a second vote, without a civil war occuring.

With so much involved, nobody is that feckless or incompetent on that sort of scale.

Exactly, Just like during the so called global financial crisis, the rule book was driven over with a coach and horses.
Things will carry on until superseded, otherwise there would be a real crisis that could probably involve bringing out the army.

One thing I forgot to add, the biggest risk of disruption after Brexit is going to be from jobsworths who will query every single process that they carry out and will not do anything with express instructions from their management, regardless of the consequences.

Think of traffic wardens who will ticket a car who's driver fas just dropped dead of a heart attack.

_________________
"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:08 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 22, 2007
Posts: 1921
dolanbaker wrote:
Epicurus wrote:
When there is so much at stake, business, public disorder etc. laws can and will be enacted to ease the flow of business, people and trade. We know this. Even if it meant the house of commons sitting until 3am night after night to get emergency laws through. Where there is a will, there is a way.

The fact that nobody is working on this, 9 months out from the 29th March is why I've become fairly convinced the efforts to date are mere tokenism, not necessarily pure incompetence, and nobody seriously expects to leave in a big bang next 29th March. The can is being kicked down the road until it is in any way palatable to hold a second vote, without a civil war occuring.

With so much involved, nobody is that feckless or incompetent on that sort of scale.

Exactly, Just like during the so called global financial crisis, the rule book was driven over with a coach and horses.
Things will carry on until superseded, otherwise there would be a real crisis that could probably involve bringing out the army.


The main difference I see between the GFC and Brexit is that the GFC was everyone in the West's problem. They all had a vested interest in sorting it out. Is it in the EU's/US/China's stategic interset to dig Britain out of a hole?
The GFC only affected one part of the economy, the banks. Brexit is all parts of the economy, it also affects defence, education, transport, justice. That's a lot of late nights, they'd want to be getting started last year to hit March '19.
Brexit is a regional problem, mostly Britain and Irelands with it's ramifications lessening as it radiates out. I can't see the US power structures sitting through the night like it did for the GFC to pass rules to allow Britain to trade as it does presently under the EU. Will the Chinese politburo?

_________________
No tool is omnicompetent. There is no such thing as a master-key that will unlock all doors.
--Arnold Toynbee

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
--Epictetus


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:06 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3737
Location: Bogtrotterland!
tulip wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
Epicurus wrote:
When there is so much at stake, business, public disorder etc. laws can and will be enacted to ease the flow of business, people and trade. We know this. Even if it meant the house of commons sitting until 3am night after night to get emergency laws through. Where there is a will, there is a way.

The fact that nobody is working on this, 9 months out from the 29th March is why I've become fairly convinced the efforts to date are mere tokenism, not necessarily pure incompetence, and nobody seriously expects to leave in a big bang next 29th March. The can is being kicked down the road until it is in any way palatable to hold a second vote, without a civil war occuring.

With so much involved, nobody is that feckless or incompetent on that sort of scale.

Exactly, Just like during the so called global financial crisis, the rule book was driven over with a coach and horses.
Things will carry on until superseded, otherwise there would be a real crisis that could probably involve bringing out the army.


The main difference I see between the GFC and Brexit is that the GFC was everyone in the West's problem. They all had a vested interest in sorting it out. Is it in the EU's/US/China's stategic interset to dig Britain out of a hole?
The GFC only affected one part of the economy, the banks. Brexit is all parts of the economy, it also affects defence, education, transport, justice. That's a lot of late nights, they'd want to be getting started last year to hit March '19.
Brexit is a regional problem, mostly Britain and Irelands with it's ramifications lessening as it radiates out. I can't see the US power structures sitting through the night like it did for the GFC to pass rules to allow Britain to trade as it does presently under the EU. Will the Chinese politburo?

If they want to avoid chaos, they will.

_________________
"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:34 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 1216
Location: In the Sandpit.
dolanbaker wrote:
If they want to avoid chaos, they will.

But who is "they"? If this was just the UK and EU in the mix, I'd agree with you.
And WTO MFN status hangs over all of this. If the EU or UK decides to break international law by allowing goods to continue to circulate after March 29 (without a transition period or FTA), as they do now, all other nations in the WTO will land on them like a ton of bricks.

The options to avoid chaos are massively constrained by the change of status of the UK into a Third Country, and the expectations of all other WTO nations as to how they will be now be treated by the UK concerning UK imports. Tariffs are one thing, but I understand (but may be incorrect) that MFN also applies to sanitary and phytosanitary measures. So both sides have to put in place measures that don't expose them to WTO litigation by any other nation. Outside of a transition period or FTA, the EU has to then strictly treat the UK as a Third Country.
That is, if Trump doesn't decide to try destroy the WTO first. This isn't unthinkable anymore. God knows what would happen then.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:01 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 19, 2010
Posts: 1462
london_irish wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
If they want to avoid chaos, they will.

But who is "they"? If this was just the UK and EU in the mix, I'd agree with you.
And WTO MFN status hangs over all of this. If the EU or UK decides to break international law by allowing goods to continue to circulate after March 29 (without a transition period or FTA), as they do now, all other nations in the WTO will land on them like a ton of bricks.

The options to avoid chaos are massively constrained by the change of status of the UK into a Third Country, and the expectations of all other WTO nations as to how they will be now be treated by the UK concerning UK imports. Tariffs are one thing, but I understand (but may be incorrect) that MFN also applies to sanitary and phytosanitary measures. So both sides have to put in place measures that don't expose them to WTO litigation by any other nation. Outside of a transition period or FTA, the EU has to then strictly treat the UK as a Third Country.
That is, if Trump doesn't decide to try destroy the WTO first. This isn't unthinkable anymore. God knows what would happen then.


Given the UK does a lot of trade with the rest of the world under EU trade agreements, what will happen there, we are all aware of how the EU will treat them but by the sounds of it the ROTW will treat them the same if there is a risk of WTO litigation on anything other than WTO rules without separate trade agreements? I've read nothing of trade negotiations with the ROTW.


Top
 Profile  
 



Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 5011 posts ]  [Go to page]   Previous  1 ... 410, 411, 412, 413, 414, 415, 416 ... 502  Next

    Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » The Central Bank

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Clank, Dubhgeannain, The Naked Chef and 6 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Follow, Retweet @dailypinster



Pyramid Built, Is Better Built! - Latest Property Discussions www.thepropertypin.com