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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:20 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
mortgageboy wrote:
A very good summary.

Indeed it is, thanks Evil_g!

It is to be sure EvilG - Yer marvellous!
Praise from Yogi?
Theres no higher accolade on The Pin y'know.
(Except getting banned. At least I'd imagine so. Its never happend to me. Obviously.)

yoganmahew wrote:
Back on the legal topic, 'common law' was the phrase I was grasping for above. And it appears we are still fully common law, so there you go. Let the loopholes abound. Anyway, I've never been more pro and agreement than I was after reading this and seeing the picture...
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/091 ... al-system/

Glad to see youve caught up with one of the real issues, Yogi.
Youre really coming along!

What'll Europe do without the Brits listening systems, though?
Theres another clump for your pipe....

Gas crack the whole Brexit thing, isnt it?
Sure I was laughing me arse of this morning when the BBC led with Carneys "35% house price drop".
Honest to God I was snotting into the auld Ready Brek!

Jaysus didnt the whole thing take off on the auld Social Media and by lunch time they'd figured that 75% of the country thought it was a good idea.
There were remainers, millenials, pensioners, transgenders, londoners.... the whole shower was starting to 'get it'.
Even Kamel Ahed (or whoever did the Carney interview and article) had to backtrack on Twitter.

I swear to God but the whole thing vanished from the BBC website soon after.

You'd swear the fuckwits at the BBC/BoE were so detatched from reality that they thought this was a bad thing.

And there - for those who doubt - is the vast, vast gap between the the governing and the goverened in England.

If I were in Ireland, and I were exposed to the UK economy (thats you everyone!), I'd be realising that a bad deal for the UK is going to make 2008 look like a picnic.



Time to cut the bravado and start supporting the UK in return for a (term defined) UK subsidised UI.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:36 pm 
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edit: Pah

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:57 am 
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https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-co ... rg-summit/
Quote:
Brexit: The Salzburg summit and the hard choices of the Endgame
Tony Connelly
Next week EU leaders will descend on Salzburg, the picture book city overlooked by the Alps, and studded with renaissance and baroque architectural jewels.

It is also the birthplace of Mozart, and in recent weeks there have been suggestions that an aria of goodwill would waft from the 27 leaders in Theresa May’s direction, signalling an ornate pirouette in the Brexit melody.

In the British press this is taken to mean a signal to Michel Barnier to relax his "dogmatic" negotiating stance and to unlock a deal on the Irish border.

UK negotiators, however, have been playing down expectations.
>>>

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:23 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0915/993822-brexit-salzburg-summit/
Quote:
Next week EU leaders will descend on Salzburg, the picture book city overlooked by the Alps, and studded with renaissance and baroque architectural jewels.

It is also the birthplace of Mozart, and in recent weeks there have been suggestions that an aria of goodwill would waft from the 27 leaders in Theresa May’s direction, signalling an ornate pirouette in the Brexit melody.

In the British press this is taken to mean a signal to Michel Barnier to relax his "dogmatic" negotiating stance and to unlock a deal on the Irish border.


Over on eureferendum.com ...

Quote:
... multiple reports, popping up for over a week now, suggesting that the European Council was going to consider giving Barnier a new (or modified) mandate at the Salzburg meeting. One doesn't even need a rebuttal here: to anyone with a knowledge of EU procedures, such a development looks improbable, and we have not been alone in considering many of the reports "overblown"...

The "scuttlebutt" – as American servicemen used to call it – stems from an almost obsessive determination on the part of UK politicians, encouraged by sections of the media, to believe that they can bypass Michel Barnier, as the official negotiator, and appeal above his head directly to Member States.

The current narrative rests on the idea that the Member States will take a direct part in the negotiations at Salzburg next week, allowing Mrs May to hijack the European Council and thrash out the deal that has so far evaded the "inflexible" M. Barnier.

We had a not-dissimilar dynamic played out prior to the Gothenburg informal Council, with exaggerated expectations, brought to a fever-pitch by the media before the event – only to be deflated afterwards, in a massive anti-climax.

Then, of course, Barnier was in the process of formally proposing new guidelines – which had been signalled well in advance. But now, in an inversion of the usual procedure, we are led to expect that the European Council itself will, effectively, impose a new mandate on Barnier, more favourable to the UK.

Winding down the expectations for Salzburg, all that is going is happen there is that Mrs May will be allowed to give a short presentation to the other Heads of State and Government during lunch on the first day.

Taking a precedent from the previous occasion in Gothenburg, there will be no questions or discussion at the time. Only on the next day, when Mrs May has left, will the EU-27 consider whether to agree a special meeting of the European Council in November.

If there are any new guidelines required, it will be up to M. Barnier himself to make formal proposals – and none are expected. One of those ever-helpful anonymous diplomats tells the Guardian: "I don't see a situation where Michel Barnier says 'I'm fine with the mandate’ and the heads of state give him another one. If we should give additional guidance, and that is a big if, it would only be done in concerted discussion with the Commission".

This, of course, means that the considerable effort expended by the UK government in touring the capitals of Europe, schmoozing other Member State leaders, has been a complete waste of time and effort. It has achieved nothing constructive and, if anything, has irritated other Members, who have long been telling the UK that such approaches are futile.

It might have helped if the media had been more forthcoming in pointing this out, but most of the legacy media has been quite happy to go along with the theatre, and take the UK initiatives at face value, as if they had any relevance to the talks.


http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86994

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:47 pm 
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Hmm, so what you're all telling me is that my prediction that the UK would after Brexit be, "5% poorer and 10% happier" is going to be a bit wide of the mark ? :P

Meanwhile Sweden (Yes Sweden !) is lurching to the right. And the EU fails to adequately address the wave of sub-Saharan Africans as it struggles to square it's instinctive but toxic empathy with the reality that it has to look after its own citizens first. But migration is just a dripping tap - commentators here and elsewhere can happily label it as hysteria until the sink overflows. And admittedly Britain is the EU country that had widespread riots and looting in recent years.

What I'm saying is that middle England may just stick with their initial decision to unhook themselves from Crazy Merkel's toxic empathy. If I was Theresa May I'd be doubling down on a push to the right on issues like migration.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:06 pm 
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GameBlame wrote:
What I'm saying is that middle England may just stick with their initial decision to unhook themselves from Crazy Merkel's toxic empathy. If I was Theresa May I'd be doubling down on a push to the right on issues like migration.

Indeed, and by tieing themselves to unrestricted immigration from the Commonwealth. That'll show johnny european foreigner he can't mess with the plucky english!

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:52 pm 
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I always see the Brexiteers referred to in this thread as 'English' but it's easy to forget that the Welsh voted to leave as did large numbers of both Scotland and NI.
This seems to be very much a UK decision.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:38 pm 
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NorthDub Paul wrote:
I always see the Brexiteers referred to in this thread as 'English' but it's easy to forget that the Welsh voted to leave as did large numbers of both Scotland and NI.
This seems to be very much a UK decision.

It's also worth remembering that much of the "home" counties voted remain.
This is very much a vote based on the demographic make up of the population, those who benefited most from the "free market" voted remain, while those who were largely ignored by the elite and were losing out due to the "race to the bottom" voted leave.

If the referendum was about allowing immigration (both form EU & non EU), the results would have been similar, as in no to further immigration.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:45 am 
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dolanbaker wrote:
NorthDub Paul wrote:
I always see the Brexiteers referred to in this thread as 'English' but it's easy to forget that the Welsh voted to leave as did large numbers of both Scotland and NI.
This seems to be very much a UK decision.

It's also worth remembering that much of the "home" counties voted remain.
This is very much a vote based on the demographic make up of the population, those who benefited most from the "free market" voted remain, while those who were largely ignored by the elite and were losing out due to the "race to the bottom" voted leave.

If the referendum was about allowing immigration (both form EU & non EU), the results would have been similar, as in no to further immigration.


I think it would have a been wider No to immigration. They thought they were voting against Muslim immigration but they're going to get more from the commonwealth. They're only marginally reducing it by stopping Merkel's whims.

And if Brexit goes wrong you have a good chance to see race riots / pogroms in North of England. England has a recent history of rioting and a long history of religious pogroms. There is effectively apartheid going on in places like Bradford. And the kind of people in the indigenous community who might do it would be delighted to get payback for the sexual abuse and grooming scandals. That won't be forgotten quickly.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:22 am 
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mortgageboy wrote:
Evil_g wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Evil_g wrote:

In the event of the treaties upon which all European Law is based ceasing to apply to the UK, I'd expect that the UK civil service will be pretty snowed under.

I think it would take quite some time to prepare the necessary paperwork to replace this miniscule, relatively straightforward, element of the single market, to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.

It's taken half a century to build up, and if you withdraw from the whole thing, it is not going to be replaced in 72 hours.

Business contracts don't operate on a nod and a wink.


While I certainly take your point about unprecedented levels of uncertainty applying to everything connected to Brexit currently, I don't share the perception that it may cause systemic collapse or anything like it.

The respective civil services have years of experience of reinventing their own work practices based around events as they unfold, be they Directives or ongoing political or legal events. And while the noises coming from within the British civil service may be playing up suggestions of chaotic outcomes it needs to be remembered that many are the most vested of interests when it comes to maintaining the umbilical chord to Brussels. I cannot accept that journalists or contributors to an online forum such as this are ahead of the game vis a vis the people who will have direct responsibility for such matters come the day of reckoning.

So there may be a degree of disruption as there is with all change but as another poster previously noted, in 2008 the financial system did not collapse. The world kept turning and those with responsibility for such matters simply rewrote the manual to ensure that the wheels of commerce kept on keeping on....and I say that as someone who at that time very much bought into the notion that things would go apocalyptic.

The same will happen in this instance, albeit messily.


What you're saying, is that Brexit (whatever that ends up being) probably won't lead to systemic collapse.

What I'm saying, is that failure to have a withdrawal agreement, which includes a transition period, in place by the 29th of March next year would absolutely lead to systemic collapse. Certainly within the UK, and it would have very severe repercussions outside of the UK.

However, the most likely outcome, in my opinion, is that a withdrawal agreement will be reached, which will include a backstop provision very close to the current proposed wording. This will provide for a two year transition period during which the UK will have pretty much the same rights and obligations as they currently do.

It will also include some waffle about the EU's intention strike a uniquely special trade deal (in so far as this is possible with the UK's redlines). This will be presented (a) to the leavers in the UK parliament as "take it or no Brexit", and (b) to remainers in parliament as "take it or no withdrawal agreement". Nobody will care what the DUP think.

Then one of two things will happen.

(a) Either the Parliament will reject it, the government will fall, a general election will be announced, and the UK will ask nicely for an extension to the Article 50 period to allow the election be held. What the election will be fought on will depend on the public mood, but you'd hope some hard questions about where the fuck all of this is heading might be asked; or

(b) And I believe this is more likely, parliament will accept the deal.

If the deal is accepted, in early April, the UK will sit down as a third country, with seasoned EU trade negotiators to negotiate the first of their wonderful Global Britain Trade deals. They will initially request a unicorns and fairies Canada+++ deal based on imagination and good will from all sides. They will not be in a position to threaten to withhold future payments. They will not be in a position to threaten to partition Ireland.

They will be eviscerated.

No other country will enter into trade negotiations with them until their future relationship with Europe is clear.

And the clock will be ticking towards the end of the transition period in 2021, after which, you guessed it, the Treaties will cease to apply.

Once the UK population finally realise that absolutely nothing that is on the table is anywhere close to as good as their current arrangement
(surely the penny has to drop before the end of 2019) I see at least three possible outcomes (presented in order of least likely to most likely):

(a) The public will direct their anger towards the politicians who brought them to this point and demand that EU accession talks begin immediately;

(b) The public agree that the best they can hope for is (i) a Canada style deal which would disastrous for integrated supply chains and their services industry, or (ii) a Norway style deal which would be humiliating, expensive, and they'd still have to deal with those slightly brown people who talk funny; or

(c) The public demand that the government negotiate harder so that they can have their cake and eat it. To allow this take place the government ask for a good long extension to the transition period, with progressively fewer rights, but the same amount of obligations. Ten years ought to do it. We're not transitioning to nowhere, just transitioning to the point that no one in charge can be blamed for the problem.

So, yeah, I fully agree that Brexit probably won't result in systemic collapse.

So long as a withdrawal agreement is in place by March 29th next year.


A very good summary.

The Breixteers in England are still (although perhaps slightly less than before) wittering on about 'absurd' and 'silly' notions that UK aircraft could be grounded, or truck drivers prevented from driving on the continent, or animal products stopped at EU borders. Like Poacher above, they assume that because it 'makes sense' to keep things as they are in these areas, it will magically happen, even with no deal. But as the EU patiently and repeatedly point out, all these things require a legal framework, outside of which the UK has chosen to place itself. And in the absence of new arrangements which replace existing legal agreements, there are certain ineluctable consequences.


Yes Evil G's post is a worthy attempt at fleshing out the mechanics of what may happen should cirxumstances play themselves out in a particular manner.

However, it is one which appears to afford a degree of reverence to the legal and administrative practices that underpin the functioning of the EU and the manner in which it may conduct a relationship with the U.K. Ie yes that scenario is a possibility (and kudos to him/her for sticking his/her neck out and stating exactly what they believe will happen), but it is one (IMO) that is predicated on the adoption/maintenance of a particular political stance on the part of those charged with responsibility for charting the course of the post Brexit UK and EU.

In other words, (IMO) a degree of pragmatism and goodwill on the part of those involved woukd be quite capable of overcoming any obstacles that are likely to be encountered. For example consider the manner in which a Framework Decision is adopted and applied to Irish law. Generally work practices change absolutely within Givernment Departments,sometimes within the courts maybe within the Gardai, to name a few. There is generaly a 'window' period during which uncertainty applies, ongoing legal advice is required and back and forth continues over a period between the contacts in the respective agencies and member states with a view to ironing out such difficulties. The processes themselves may be held up for a time but they don't grind to a halt. New processes are established, new precedents are set and newer, broader knowledge is accumulated. Quite simply, people find solutions.

Obviously this is heightened and magnified in the case of Brexit but given the fact that people's livelihoods rather than mere administrative or legal practices will be at stake I would be confident that timelines for solutions could be a lot shorter than those associated with the workload of the average civil servant.

However, this is obviously based on the existence of the political will to do so. And there obviously exists the likelihood that the EU side may understably not wish to find solutions that could potentially render Brexit somewhat more succesful than would otherwise be the case. Likewise, it may not actually be in the personal interest of the individuals charged with negotiating on behalf of the U.K. to see Brexit succeed....and that some 'systemic collapse' up north or wherever might be just the ticket in PR terms.

Nontheless, my position is that such an outcome would be as a result of a political failure on the part of the individuals in question rather than any real inability on the part of people to arrive at solutions (in the short term) that would allow them to get on with the day to day business of living and trading with each other.

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