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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:07 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Evil_g wrote:

"Post Brexit". And Brexit means?

The papers released yesterday, the BBC article that raised this point, and I, are specifically refering to a "No-deal" situation come the 29th of March next year.

You're talking about some unspecified set of circumstances at some unspecified point in the future.


So you're referring to a potential 'window' period of unspecified length (24 hours? 72 hours?) during which there may be some teething problems in terms of bureaucratic oversight? And after which business as usual, would be resumed?

Hardly seems like a domesday scenario.



In the event of the treaties upon which all European Law is based ceasing to apply to the UK, I'd expect that the UK civil service will be pretty snowed under.

I think it would take quite some time to prepare the necessary paperwork to replace this miniscule, relatively straightforward, element of the single market, to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.

It's taken half a century to build up, and if you withdraw from the whole thing, it is not going to be replaced in 72 hours.

Business contracts don't operate on a nod and a wink.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:56 pm 
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Evil_g wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Evil_g wrote:

"Post Brexit". And Brexit means?

The papers released yesterday, the BBC article that raised this point, and I, are specifically refering to a "No-deal" situation come the 29th of March next year.

You're talking about some unspecified set of circumstances at some unspecified point in the future.


So you're referring to a potential 'window' period of unspecified length (24 hours? 72 hours?) during which there may be some teething problems in terms of bureaucratic oversight? And after which business as usual, would be resumed?

Hardly seems like a domesday scenario.


In the event of the treaties upon which all European Law is based ceasing to apply to the UK, I'd expect that the UK civil service will be pretty snowed under.

I think it would take quite some time to prepare the necessary paperwork to replace this miniscule, relatively straightforward, element of the single market, to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.

It's taken half a century to build up, and if you withdraw from the whole thing, it is not going to be replaced in 72 hours.

Business contracts don't operate on a nod and a wink.


While I certainly take your point about unprecedented levels of uncertainty applying to everything connected to Brexit currently, I don't share the perception that it may cause systemic collapse or anything like it.

The respective civil services have years of experience of reinventing their own work practices based around events as they unfold, be they Directives or ongoing political or legal events. And while the noises coming from within the British civil service may be playing up suggestions of chaotic outcomes it needs to be remembered that many are the most vested of interests when it comes to maintaining the umbilical chord to Brussels. I cannot accept that journalists or contributors to an online forum such as this are ahead of the game vis a vis the people who will have direct responsibility for such matters come the day of reckoning.

So there may be a degree of disruption as there is with all change but as another poster previously noted, in 2008 the financial system did not collapse. The world kept turning and those with responsibility for such matters simply rewrote the manual to ensure that the wheels of commerce kept on keeping on....and I say that as someone who at that time very much bought into the notion that things would go apocalyptic.

The same will happen in this instance, albeit messily.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:22 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
The respective civil services have years of experience of reinventing their own work practices based around events as they unfold, be they Directives or ongoing political or legal events. And while the noises coming from within the British civil service may be playing up suggestions of chaotic outcomes it needs to be remembered that many are the most vested of interests when it comes to maintaining the umbilical chord to Brussels. I cannot accept that journalists or contributors to an online forum such as this are ahead of the game vis a vis the people who will have direct responsibility for such matters come the day of reckoning.

We only have to look at Anglo-Irish relations when the two governments were barely on talking terms for most of a century it was civil servants on both side who bridged the gaps of necessity on a "what they don't need to know won't harm them basis".

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:33 pm 
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The shear number of treaties, regulations, policies, guidelines, case law etc that are in place to make everything work would literally take a forklift to move if they were all printed out. They are all tied together by a couple of concepts: The underlying treaty and the ECJ. These underlying concepts are being voided next March. Everything comes crashing down.

What are they going to replace it with and more to the point who exactly is going to do this work? There are literally only a handful of people in Ireland qualified to write such agreements. Any new agreement after a messy Brexit will take a long time to even write out.

To say that the manual was rewritten in 2008 is simply wrong. The Irish executive, the Taoiseach, Minister of Finance etc. have enormous legal authority. They have more legal authority than most people realized. No laws were changed and new laws were introduced at the time. Some tweaks here and there happened in the subsequent years. They exercised pre-existing executive authority that they had. I may not agree with what was done but I fully aware that what was done was fully within the authority of the executive.

No one in the EU has the power to make UK driving licenses valid by executive order. Only the EU Parliament has that authority. And the EU moves slowly.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:48 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Evil_g wrote:

In the event of the treaties upon which all European Law is based ceasing to apply to the UK, I'd expect that the UK civil service will be pretty snowed under.

I think it would take quite some time to prepare the necessary paperwork to replace this miniscule, relatively straightforward, element of the single market, to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.

It's taken half a century to build up, and if you withdraw from the whole thing, it is not going to be replaced in 72 hours.

Business contracts don't operate on a nod and a wink.


While I certainly take your point about unprecedented levels of uncertainty applying to everything connected to Brexit currently, I don't share the perception that it may cause systemic collapse or anything like it.

The respective civil services have years of experience of reinventing their own work practices based around events as they unfold, be they Directives or ongoing political or legal events. And while the noises coming from within the British civil service may be playing up suggestions of chaotic outcomes it needs to be remembered that many are the most vested of interests when it comes to maintaining the umbilical chord to Brussels. I cannot accept that journalists or contributors to an online forum such as this are ahead of the game vis a vis the people who will have direct responsibility for such matters come the day of reckoning.

So there may be a degree of disruption as there is with all change but as another poster previously noted, in 2008 the financial system did not collapse. The world kept turning and those with responsibility for such matters simply rewrote the manual to ensure that the wheels of commerce kept on keeping on....and I say that as someone who at that time very much bought into the notion that things would go apocalyptic.

The same will happen in this instance, albeit messily.


What you're saying, is that Brexit (whatever that ends up being) probably won't lead to systemic collapse.

What I'm saying, is that failure to have a withdrawal agreement, which includes a transition period, in place by the 29th of March next year would absolutely lead to systemic collapse. Certainly within the UK, and it would have very severe repercussions outside of the UK.

However, the most likely outcome, in my opinion, is that a withdrawal agreement will be reached, which will include a backstop provision very close to the current proposed wording. This will provide for a two year transition period during which the UK will have pretty much the same rights and obligations as they currently do.

It will also include some waffle about the EU's intention strike a uniquely special trade deal (in so far as this is possible with the UK's redlines).

This will be presented (a) to the leavers in the UK parliament as "take it or no Brexit", and (b) to remainers in parliament as "take it or no withdrawal agreement". Nobody will care what the DUP think.

Then one of two things will happen.

(a) Either the Parliament will reject it, the government will fall, a general election will be announced, and the UK will ask nicely for an extension to the Article 50 period to allow the election be held. What the election will be fought on will depend on the public mood, but you'd hope some hard questions about where the fuck all of this is heading might be asked; or

(b) And I believe this is more likely, parliament will accept the deal.

If the deal is accepted, in early April, the UK will sit down as a third country, with seasoned EU trade negotiators to negotiate the first of their wonderful Global Britain Trade deals. They will initially request a unicorns and fairies Canada+++ deal based on imagination and good will from all sides. They will not be in a position to threaten to withhold future payments. They will not be in a position to threaten to partition Ireland.

They will be eviscerated.

No other country will enter into trade negotiations with them until their future relationship with Europe is clear.

And the clock will be ticking towards the end of the transition period in 2021, after which, you guessed it, the Treaties will cease to apply.

Once the UK population finally realise that absolutely nothing that is on the table is anywhere close to as good as their current arrangement
(surely the penny has to drop before the end of 2019) I see at least three possible outcomes (presented in order of least likely to most likely):

(a) The public will direct their anger towards the politicians who brought them to this point and demand that EU accession talks begin immediately;

(b) The public agree that the best they can hope for is (i) a Canada style deal which would disastrous for integrated supply chains and their services industry, or (ii) a Norway style deal which would be humiliating, expensive, and they'd still have to deal with those slightly brown people who talk funny; or

(c) The public demand that the government negotiate harder so that they can have their cake and eat it. To allow this take place the government ask for a good long extension to the transition period, with progressively fewer rights, but the same amount of obligations. Ten years ought to do it. We're not transitioning to nowhere, just transitioning to the point that no one in charge can be blamed for the problem.

So, yeah, I fully agree that Brexit probably won't result in systemic collapse.

So long as a withdrawal agreement is in place by March 29th next year.


Last edited by Evil_g on Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:09 pm 
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Evil_g wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Evil_g wrote:

In the event of the treaties upon which all European Law is based ceasing to apply to the UK, I'd expect that the UK civil service will be pretty snowed under.

I think it would take quite some time to prepare the necessary paperwork to replace this miniscule, relatively straightforward, element of the single market, to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.

It's taken half a century to build up, and if you withdraw from the whole thing, it is not going to be replaced in 72 hours.

Business contracts don't operate on a nod and a wink.


While I certainly take your point about unprecedented levels of uncertainty applying to everything connected to Brexit currently, I don't share the perception that it may cause systemic collapse or anything like it.

The respective civil services have years of experience of reinventing their own work practices based around events as they unfold, be they Directives or ongoing political or legal events. And while the noises coming from within the British civil service may be playing up suggestions of chaotic outcomes it needs to be remembered that many are the most vested of interests when it comes to maintaining the umbilical chord to Brussels. I cannot accept that journalists or contributors to an online forum such as this are ahead of the game vis a vis the people who will have direct responsibility for such matters come the day of reckoning.

So there may be a degree of disruption as there is with all change but as another poster previously noted, in 2008 the financial system did not collapse. The world kept turning and those with responsibility for such matters simply rewrote the manual to ensure that the wheels of commerce kept on keeping on....and I say that as someone who at that time very much bought into the notion that things would go apocalyptic.

The same will happen in this instance, albeit messily.


What you're saying, is that Brexit (whatever that ends up being) probably won't lead to systemic collapse.

What I'm saying, is that failure to have a withdrawal agreement, which includes a transition period, in place by the 29th of March next year would absolutely lead to systemic collapse. Certainly within the UK, and it would have very severe repercussions outside of the UK.

However, the most likely outcome, in my opinion, is that a withdrawal agreement will be reached, which will include a backstop provision very close to the current proposed wording. This will provide for a two year transition period during which the UK will have pretty much the same rights and obligations as they currently do.

It will also include some waffle about the EU's intention strike a uniquely special trade deal (in so far as this is possible with the UK's redlines). This will be presented (a) to the leavers in the UK parliament as "take it or no Brexit", and (b) to remainers in parliament as "take it or no withdrawal agreement". Nobody will care what the DUP think.

Then one of two things will happen.

(a) Either the Parliament will reject it, the government will fall, a general election will be announced, and the UK will ask nicely for an extension to the Article 50 period to allow the election be held. What the election will be fought on will depend on the public mood, but you'd hope some hard questions about where the fuck all of this is heading might be asked; or

(b) And I believe this is more likely, parliament will accept the deal.

If the deal is accepted, in early April, the UK will sit down as a third country, with seasoned EU trade negotiators to negotiate the first of their wonderful Global Britain Trade deals. They will initially request a unicorns and fairies Canada+++ deal based on imagination and good will from all sides. They will not be in a position to threaten to withhold future payments. They will not be in a position to threaten to partition Ireland.

They will be eviscerated.

No other country will enter into trade negotiations with them until their future relationship with Europe is clear.

And the clock will be ticking towards the end of the transition period in 2021, after which, you guessed it, the Treaties will cease to apply.

Once the UK population finally realise that absolutely nothing that is on the table is anywhere close to as good as their current arrangement
(surely the penny has to drop before the end of 2019) I see at least three possible outcomes (presented in order of least likely to most likely):

(a) The public will direct their anger towards the politicians who brought them to this point and demand that EU accession talks begin immediately;

(b) The public agree that the best they can hope for is (i) a Canada style deal which would disastrous for integrated supply chains and their services industry, or (ii) a Norway style deal which would be humiliating, expensive, and they'd still have to deal with those slightly brown people who talk funny; or

(c) The public demand that the government negotiate harder so that they can have their cake and eat it. To allow this take place the government ask for a good long extension to the transition period, with progressively fewer rights, but the same amount of obligations. Ten years ought to do it. We're not transitioning to nowhere, just transitioning to the point that no one in charge can be blamed for the problem.

So, yeah, I fully agree that Brexit probably won't result in systemic collapse.

So long as a withdrawal agreement is in place by March 29th next year.


A very good summary.

The Breixteers in England are still (although perhaps slightly less than before) wittering on about 'absurd' and 'silly' notions that UK aircraft could be grounded, or truck drivers prevented from driving on the continent, or animal products stopped at EU borders. Like Poacher above, they assume that because it 'makes sense' to keep things as they are in these areas, it will magically happen, even with no deal. But as the EU patiently and repeatedly point out, all these things require a legal framework, outside of which the UK has chosen to place itself. And in the absence of new arrangements which replace existing legal agreements, there are certain ineluctable consequences.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:14 pm 
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The Curious One wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Do you really believe that people holding British driving licenses will be excluded from driving in France and Spain ?



Yes, because they are not insured. They are not insured because they do not have a license; they don't have a license because the international treaties that the license was based on has been rescinded.

Have you ever tried to claim insurance? Every comma, dot or smudge or crease in a contract is used as an excuse as to why not to pay out claims. Do you really think that insurance companies are going to pay out large amounts of money when they don't have to?

The Curious One wrote:
No one in the EU has the power to make UK driving licenses valid by executive order. Only the EU Parliament has that authority. And the EU moves slowly.

I think driving licenses are actually an area that will be somewhat insulated from disruption. It's governed by a UN agreement, to which all EU countries are signatories. The EU driving license format only smooths the process within the UN agreement so the UK exiting the EU won't nullify the original UN agreement. A UK license will still have been issued by the national authority of a signatory to the UN agreement, therefore it is valid in other countries that are signatories. The most that can be required is that you obtain an IDP to go with it. I've had to do this to drive in other countries outside the EU and it is a relatively painless process. Just fill in a short form and send it together with a photo, a copy of your license, and €15, to the AA in Dublin and you'll get an IDP back in the post a few days later. Then you're good to go for a year. The same for insurance. The green card system has existed since before the EU and covers more countries than the EU. There's nothing to stop UK insurers, or indeed insurers from other countries, offering UK drivers green card coverage to drive in other parts of Europe, within the EU or outside it.

There are many major areas for potentially catastrophic disruption but I think the driving abroad one is way overplayed.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:25 pm 
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Part of me thinks that the British public won't truly understand how interdependent they are after four decades of economic integration with the EU until they see unmistakable effects on their shelves. I won't be surprised if this thing goes right to the brink. It would be foolish for use to not prepare for a hard Brexit.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:11 pm 
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mortgageboy wrote:
A very good summary.

Indeed it is, thanks Evil_g!

Quote:
The Breixteers in England are still (although perhaps slightly less than before) wittering on about 'absurd' and 'silly' notions that UK aircraft could be grounded, or truck drivers prevented from driving on the continent, or animal products stopped at EU borders. Like Poacher above, they assume that because it 'makes sense' to keep things as they are in these areas, it will magically happen, even with no deal. But as the EU patiently and repeatedly point out, all these things require a legal framework, outside of which the UK has chosen to place itself. And in the absence of new arrangements which replace existing legal agreements, there are certain ineluctable consequences.

Absolutely, and I think the reason is the differing legal systems - the UK and part of the Irish system are principles based to a degree with a common sense element underpinning (man on the Clapham omnibus). This has precedent. The European (and rest of the world, largely) have rules based systems. They cannot turn a blind eye to something that doesn't make sense. Equally, you're far less likely to get off (e.g. corporate manslaughter is more vigorously pursued because that's what the law says you should do). Neither is ideal and I'm not sure you can mix them. I believe that Ireland has a mix - some inherited from the UK, some transposed from Europe. I may be wrong on all of this, but that's my gut feeling.

The Brexiters are myopic about the consequences because it'd never happen in England that a silly law would get in the way of going about your daily business. Why can't Europe be more like England! :|

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:51 pm 
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Back on the legal topic, 'common law' was the phrase I was grasping for above. And it appears we are still fully common law, so there you go. Let the loopholes abound. Anyway, I've never been more pro and agreement than I was after reading this and seeing the picture...
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/091 ... al-system/

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:20 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
mortgageboy wrote:
A very good summary.

Indeed it is, thanks Evil_g!

It is to be sure EvilG - Yer marvellous!
Praise from Yogi?
Theres no higher accolade on The Pin y'know.
(Except getting banned. At least I'd imagine so. Its never happend to me. Obviously.)

yoganmahew wrote:
Back on the legal topic, 'common law' was the phrase I was grasping for above. And it appears we are still fully common law, so there you go. Let the loopholes abound. Anyway, I've never been more pro and agreement than I was after reading this and seeing the picture...
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/091 ... al-system/

Glad to see youve caught up with one of the real issues, Yogi.
Youre really coming along!

What'll Europe do without the Brits listening systems, though?
Theres another clump for your pipe....

Gas crack the whole Brexit thing, isnt it?
Sure I was laughing me arse of this morning when the BBC led with Carneys "35% house price drop".
Honest to God I was snotting into the auld Ready Brek!

Jaysus didnt the whole thing take off on the auld Social Media and by lunch time they'd figured that 75% of the country thought it was a good idea.
There were remainers, millenials, pensioners, transgenders, londoners.... the whole shower was starting to 'get it'.
Even Kamel Ahed (or whoever did the Carney interview and article) had to backtrack on Twitter.

I swear to God but the whole thing vanished from the BBC website soon after.

You'd swear the fuckwits at the BBC/BoE were so detatched from reality that they thought this was a bad thing.

And there - for those who doubt - is the vast, vast gap between the the governing and the goverened in England.

If I were in Ireland, and I were exposed to the UK economy (thats you everyone!), I'd be realising that a bad deal for the UK is going to make 2008 look like a picnic.



Time to cut the bravado and start supporting the UK in return for a (term defined) UK subsidised UI.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:36 pm 
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edit: Pah

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:57 am 
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https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-co ... rg-summit/
Quote:
Brexit: The Salzburg summit and the hard choices of the Endgame
Tony Connelly
Next week EU leaders will descend on Salzburg, the picture book city overlooked by the Alps, and studded with renaissance and baroque architectural jewels.

It is also the birthplace of Mozart, and in recent weeks there have been suggestions that an aria of goodwill would waft from the 27 leaders in Theresa May’s direction, signalling an ornate pirouette in the Brexit melody.

In the British press this is taken to mean a signal to Michel Barnier to relax his "dogmatic" negotiating stance and to unlock a deal on the Irish border.

UK negotiators, however, have been playing down expectations.
>>>

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:23 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0915/993822-brexit-salzburg-summit/
Quote:
Next week EU leaders will descend on Salzburg, the picture book city overlooked by the Alps, and studded with renaissance and baroque architectural jewels.

It is also the birthplace of Mozart, and in recent weeks there have been suggestions that an aria of goodwill would waft from the 27 leaders in Theresa May’s direction, signalling an ornate pirouette in the Brexit melody.

In the British press this is taken to mean a signal to Michel Barnier to relax his "dogmatic" negotiating stance and to unlock a deal on the Irish border.


Over on eureferendum.com ...

Quote:
... multiple reports, popping up for over a week now, suggesting that the European Council was going to consider giving Barnier a new (or modified) mandate at the Salzburg meeting. One doesn't even need a rebuttal here: to anyone with a knowledge of EU procedures, such a development looks improbable, and we have not been alone in considering many of the reports "overblown"...

The "scuttlebutt" – as American servicemen used to call it – stems from an almost obsessive determination on the part of UK politicians, encouraged by sections of the media, to believe that they can bypass Michel Barnier, as the official negotiator, and appeal above his head directly to Member States.

The current narrative rests on the idea that the Member States will take a direct part in the negotiations at Salzburg next week, allowing Mrs May to hijack the European Council and thrash out the deal that has so far evaded the "inflexible" M. Barnier.

We had a not-dissimilar dynamic played out prior to the Gothenburg informal Council, with exaggerated expectations, brought to a fever-pitch by the media before the event – only to be deflated afterwards, in a massive anti-climax.

Then, of course, Barnier was in the process of formally proposing new guidelines – which had been signalled well in advance. But now, in an inversion of the usual procedure, we are led to expect that the European Council itself will, effectively, impose a new mandate on Barnier, more favourable to the UK.

Winding down the expectations for Salzburg, all that is going is happen there is that Mrs May will be allowed to give a short presentation to the other Heads of State and Government during lunch on the first day.

Taking a precedent from the previous occasion in Gothenburg, there will be no questions or discussion at the time. Only on the next day, when Mrs May has left, will the EU-27 consider whether to agree a special meeting of the European Council in November.

If there are any new guidelines required, it will be up to M. Barnier himself to make formal proposals – and none are expected. One of those ever-helpful anonymous diplomats tells the Guardian: "I don't see a situation where Michel Barnier says 'I'm fine with the mandate’ and the heads of state give him another one. If we should give additional guidance, and that is a big if, it would only be done in concerted discussion with the Commission".

This, of course, means that the considerable effort expended by the UK government in touring the capitals of Europe, schmoozing other Member State leaders, has been a complete waste of time and effort. It has achieved nothing constructive and, if anything, has irritated other Members, who have long been telling the UK that such approaches are futile.

It might have helped if the media had been more forthcoming in pointing this out, but most of the legacy media has been quite happy to go along with the theatre, and take the UK initiatives at face value, as if they had any relevance to the talks.


http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86994

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:47 pm 
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Hmm, so what you're all telling me is that my prediction that the UK would after Brexit be, "5% poorer and 10% happier" is going to be a bit wide of the mark ? :P

Meanwhile Sweden (Yes Sweden !) is lurching to the right. And the EU fails to adequately address the wave of sub-Saharan Africans as it struggles to square it's instinctive but toxic empathy with the reality that it has to look after its own citizens first. But migration is just a dripping tap - commentators here and elsewhere can happily label it as hysteria until the sink overflows. And admittedly Britain is the EU country that had widespread riots and looting in recent years.

What I'm saying is that middle England may just stick with their initial decision to unhook themselves from Crazy Merkel's toxic empathy. If I was Theresa May I'd be doubling down on a push to the right on issues like migration.


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