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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:40 pm 
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Terra Incognita wrote:
Evil_g wrote:
Last night, two years, four months and sixteen days since the referendum, four months and twenty three days before the UK leaves the European Union, prominent leave campaigner and United Kingdom Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said the following:

Quote:
I hadn’t quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing. And that is one of the reasons why we have wanted to make sure we have a specific and very proximate relationship with the EU, to ensure frictionless trade at the border. I don’t think it is a question so much of the risk of major shortages, but I think probably the average consumer might not be aware of the full extent to which the choice of goods that we have in the stores are dependent on one or two very specific trade routes.


Source

At least he was honest.

I’m seriously at the popcorn stage.

The U.K. actually NEEDS Brexit at this stage. They need it for the cathartic effect it will have on them.


I wouldn't have used cathartic - maybe enema or colonic irrigation. 'Now then, what you really need Boris, Gove, Nigel, Davis and Hannan is to have all the Brexit sh1* you've been talking cleaned out of you.'


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:11 pm 
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While we're talking Raabish,
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/0 ... rotection/
Quote:
"Obviously, in a no-deal scenario we'll have to think about that more carefully," he told El Reg. "We will be providing more information as and when that becomes a live issue."

And even if Raab is right and the EU grants the UK an adequacy deal at record speed, the nation must ensure its laws stay in line with EU ones. But Raab, the Brexiteer, suggested the UK might want to deviate from them, saying he is "not sure the EU is the world-leading protector of data".

"I think that a lot of businesses have concerns about the balance they've struck with GDPR," he added.

"We would start from a position of alignment [and] we would have the opportunity in the future, over time, to depart. But precisely because of the importance of retaining an adequacy decision, we would want to make sure that we had equivalent levels of data protection."

Such comments risk reigniting criticisms that the UK is complacent about the data protection negotiations it will soon be entering with the EU; the bloc will want assurances the UK is going to toe the line, rather than vague references to departure.

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"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

So long and thanks for all the fish.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:58 am 
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At some point Raab will read the next chapter in his Brexit for Dummies book (yesterday's bit showed him Britain was encircled by a watery substance across which trucks cannot drive). The future chapters will explain how the choice on future relations is binary: high alignment with the CU and SM but no independent trade policy or independent trade policy but no high alignment with SM and CU. You cannot agree to high alignment in order to solve today's problem (exit deal, NI border etc.) and then just deviate from that when things settle down. The EU will notice if you do this.

Meanwhile, further confirmation that Tony Connelly understands Brexit better than Theresa May.

One little nugget in May's letter to Foster today caught my eye. The EU says they don't want to enshrine the future UK-EU relationship in the Withdrawal Agreement under Art. 50 because this isn't the place for it. Legally, Art. 50 is supposed to deal with exit but not future relations.

However, the EU does want to include the N.I. backstop in that Art. 50 legal agreement. How are they going to pull that off? This inconsistency hadn't occurred to me before now. What am I missing?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:06 am 
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p.s. Tory Eurosceptics are saying they will reject May's dealregardless of how things pan out with the backstop.

In a way, this makes May's next move for her. No point trying to placate them by tweaking this or that. The UK negotiators will just do their best with what they have and May will bring it to Parliament. There's no version of it that pleases the 'European Research Group' (hardline Tory Brexiteers) so f*ck it. See if a few Labour MPs will hold their noses and cross the isle at the 11th hour.

She's already laying it out for the DUP. It's 'squeaky bum time' (to borrow a phrase from Alex Ferguson).

Update: DUP replies to May's letter (and posts it on Twitter). Clear about what they don't want, as usual...
They say at the end they won't support/vote for a withdrawal agreement with the backstop. But they don't say they'll bring down the government per se. Not yet anyway... Comrade Corbyn must be a very scary proposition indeed.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:31 am 
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Ixelles wrote:
At some point Raab will read the next chapter in his Brexit for Dummies book (yesterday's bit showed him Britain was encircled by a watery substance across which trucks cannot drive). The future chapters will explain how the choice on future relations is binary: high alignment with the CU and SM but no independent trade policy or independent trade policy but no high alignment with SM and CU.


At least he is reading the book and trying to understand the situation, it is a low bar, but it is a hell of a lot more than most Brexiteers are capable of or willing to do.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:06 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
...But they don't say they'll bring down the government per se. Not yet anyway... Comrade Corbyn must be a very scary proposition indeed.


OK my guess how it will pan out is: May will bring "Chequers" before Parliament (in whatever form it survives, presumably a UK-wide Customs Union and NI backstop).

In Parliament, the DUP and ERG will vote against it. There would be Labour MPs breaking the whip, but Corbyn would probably push Labour to reject May's deal, in order to try to oust May and get a General Election. (I would hope so, anyway.)

With "Chequers" defeated, Parliament would vote on "No Deal" and would reject that also.

At that point, the politicians have failed, and they get another referendum (and possibly a GE).

Anyone?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:12 pm 
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bokonon wrote:
With "Chequers" defeated, Parliament would vote on "No Deal" and would reject that also.

At that point, the politicians have failed, and they get another referendum (and possibly a GE).

Anyone?

It's as likely as my scenario - it turns out Brexit is a virus of Russian origin, stage one is irrational voting patterns; stage two is the desire to eat a remainer; stage three is to turn into a scotsman and march north to the border. If you're the DUP, you march into the sea. Good at marching them DUPpers.

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"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

So long and thanks for all the fish.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:02 pm 
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bokonon wrote:
Ixelles wrote:
...But they don't say they'll bring down the government per se. Not yet anyway... Comrade Corbyn must be a very scary proposition indeed.


OK my guess how it will pan out is: May will bring "Chequers" before Parliament (in whatever form it survives, presumably a UK-wide Customs Union and NI backstop).

In Parliament, the DUP and ERG will vote against it. There would be Labour MPs breaking the whip, but Corbyn would probably push Labour to reject May's deal, in order to try to oust May and get a General Election. (I would hope so, anyway.)

With "Chequers" defeated, Parliament would vote on "No Deal" and would reject that also.

At that point, the politicians have failed, and they get another referendum (and possibly a GE).

Anyone?



You've confused two separate things in the Brexit process.

It's worth remembering what's actually going on. The UK informed the EU of it's intention to leave in 2 years (March 2019) which means all treaties are gone. Zero cooperation. For the EU, the UK becomes legally equivalent to North Korea unless there's a deal. People say it'd never happen, they'd agree something but of course that something is a deal! That's the default position - North Korea.

At the minute, the negotiations are on the Withdrawal Agreement. Which basically boils down to the UK gets two years pretend EU membership, the right to negotiate but not enact trade deals with the rest of the world, no formal political representation on EU bodies, pays up what it said it would to the EU budget, guarantees the rights of EU national in the UK and of course the backstop to prevent a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland after the two year grace period ends.

All that's pretty much agreed except the backstop.

There are occasionally noises about other awkward loose ends in the Withdrawal Agreement like geographic trade marks (champagne can only come from Champagne in France, Parma ham from Parma etc). They're considered small enough and I could see a symbolic row over something inconsequential before the Withdrawal Agreement is finalised.

All the tedious developments at the minute are reformulations of how the backstop would work but who knows what will make the final text. There's no point speculating.

If a final text is agreed, the UK will have to pass it through their parliament but also the EU must pass it through the European Parliament (that powerless body that does nothing!) and all the Member States have a veto.

Then we're into the future relationship. Assuming the Withdrawal Agreement holds, that means ~no changes until 2021.

However, with the end of the Withdrawal Agreement's two year transition period, the UK becomes to the EU legally equivalent to North Korea. Unless a long term trade deal sorts that. (Back to square one).

That's where Chequers comes in. It's the UK's pitch on what the future trade will look like. It tries to avoid the backstop being required by harmonising the UK to the EU for physical goods only. There's other fluff around computer tracking goods for customs but that's purely for show. Interestingly rather than reference EU law or state full harmonisation Chequers uses a convoluted locution on how the goods would be the same in the UK and EU. Suggesting they were leaving space for stroke pulling to gain an advantage.

In any case, the EU rejected Chequers on sight. So who knows what the 2021 trade deal will look like. But for the UK, it is always going to be a trade off between adherence to EU law and access to the EU single market. Low adherence = low access.

Generally trade agreements worth having take decades to sort and the consensus is that the two year transition period is wholly inadequate. A problem for a different day.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:26 am 
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Ixelles wrote:
If a final text is agreed, the UK will have to pass it through their parliament but also the EU must pass it through the European Parliament (that powerless body that does nothing!) and all the Member States have a veto.


Is it not a qualified majority required on the EU side?
Quote:
The Council will conclude the agreement and under the Treaty on European Union this can be done by a vote of strong qualified majority (i.e. 20 countries representing 65% of the EU27 population).



In the end Ireland will be told to play ball and be good Europeans.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:48 am 
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PyriteNation wrote:
Ixelles wrote:
If a final text is agreed, the UK will have to pass it through their parliament but also the EU must pass it through the European Parliament (that powerless body that does nothing!) and all the Member States have a veto.


Is it not a qualified majority required on the EU side?
Quote:
The Council will conclude the agreement and under the Treaty on European Union this can be done by a vote of strong qualified majority (i.e. 20 countries representing 65% of the EU27 population).



In the end Ireland will be told to play ball and be good Europeans.


I've no idea of the procedure but if member states think the Withdrawal Agreement is a "mixed agreement" covering national and EU competencies it has to go to each Member State to ratify in accordance with their own laws.

Given that the much less comprehensive Canadian trade deal was considered mixed I don't see why the WA would not be. Though it's fundamentally a political decision rather than a legal one. Politicians might be happy ratifying at the Council to buy 2 years' Brexit peace.


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