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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:55 am 
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bokonon wrote:
Ixelles wrote:
...But they don't say they'll bring down the government per se. Not yet anyway... Comrade Corbyn must be a very scary proposition indeed.

OK my guess how it will pan out is: May will bring "Chequers" before Parliament (in whatever form it survives, presumably a UK-wide Customs Union and NI backstop).

In Parliament, the DUP and ERG will vote against it. There would be Labour MPs breaking the whip, but Corbyn would probably push Labour to reject May's deal, in order to try to oust May and get a General Election. (I would hope so, anyway.)

With "Chequers" defeated, Parliament would vote on "No Deal" and would reject that also.

At that point, the politicians have failed, and they get another referendum (and possibly a GE).


Anyone?


The last bit doesn't follow at all. Parliament doesn't get to vote down a "No Deal". Remember all the political shenanigans over the "meaningful vote"? This became Section 13, Sub-section 11, of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. The government can announce at any time that there is no prospect of concluding a deal with the EU or, if there is no agreement in principle by 21 Jan 2019, it must make such an announcement. Then within five days the government must propose how it intends to proceed. At that point, the Commons will consider the proposal and there will be a motion "in neutral terms". That means the Commons can neither veto nor amend the proposal. The Lords will then go through a similar process.

Now, it may be that the government is under immense political pressure at that point, and it can choose to take the Commons' views into account. But as it stands today, parliament cannot reject a "No Deal". I don't think it will have to wait until 21-Jan either. If there is no breaking of the deadlock in November (i.e. the next two weeks) there is no chance of an emergency EU summit in December, and it would seem sensible to acknowledge that "no deal" is upon us.

Theresa May has also reiterated today after JoJo's resignation that there is no possibility of a second referendum. So clearly her head would have to roll before such a thing could happen. So it's hard to see what the government proposal could be except to go ahead with no deal and crash out of the EU. Now, I would expect all hell to break loose at that point and anything could happen. But seeing as Corbyn favours a GE, even if the government was toppled you would be facing into a minimum six weeks of an election campaign.

So consider the timing. The "no deal" announcement process will take three weeks -- five sitting days each for the government to come up with its proposals, and five each for the Commons and Lords debates. Even if this was all put in train at the end of November, you'd be looking at an election in mid-February, a month before Brexit date. If the can-kicking went beyond November you could even see the UK in political crisis and in transition between governments on Brexit day itself. You'd like to think everyone would see this for the nightmare it is, but unfortunately both the Brexiteer Ultras and the Corbynistas might see it suiting their game plan quite well.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:41 am 
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The whole thing is enthralling. It's rare to have such a major geopolitical event approaching via a countdown.

Even if May still had the Cameron majority and had sorted the Irish sea border, she be facing Scotland demanding the same exemption.

Even if the UK stays aligned with the SM after next march I can see their exports been heavily checked for compliance and they won't be able to do a thing about it without a seat at the table.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:39 am 
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PyriteNation wrote:
D4000 wrote:
If a final text is agreed, the UK will have to pass it through their parliament but also the EU must pass it through the European Parliament (that powerless body that does nothing!) and all the Member States have a veto.


Is it not a qualified majority required on the EU side?
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The Council will conclude the agreement and under the Treaty on European Union this can be done by a vote of strong qualified majority (i.e. 20 countries representing 65% of the EU27 population).



In the end Ireland will be told to play ball and be good Europeans.

Corrected quote - it was D4000.

You're right on the withdrawal treaty, but any future trade treaty can be vetoed. https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-veto-brexit-deal/
This has been threatened with the Canada deal and TTIP was killed off pretty sharpish.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:23 pm 
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EU member countries are insisting on seeing the proposed text of any withdrawal treaty before May takes it back to the UK parliament. Apart from adding scarce days to the whole timeline, I reckon it's a sign that the EU members are losing faith in the Brits' sincerity in the negotiations. Hardly surprising -- every time the Brits consider signing up to something they seem to have a side discussion with themselves about how they can weasel out of it later.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rexit-deal

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:38 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
The last bit doesn't follow at all. Parliament doesn't get to vote down a "No Deal". Remember all the political shenanigans over the "meaningful vote"? This became Section 13, Sub-section 11, of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. The government can announce at any time that there is no prospect of concluding a deal with the EU or, if there is no agreement in principle by 21 Jan 2019, it must make such an announcement. Then within five days the government must propose how it intends to proceed. At that point, the Commons will consider the proposal and there will be a motion "in neutral terms". That means the Commons can neither veto nor amend the proposal. The Lords will then go through a similar process.

Now, it may be that the government is under immense political pressure at that point, and it can choose to take the Commons' views into account. But as it stands today, parliament cannot reject a "No Deal". I don't think it will have to wait until 21-Jan either. If there is no breaking of the deadlock in November (i.e. the next two weeks) there is no chance of an emergency EU summit in December, and it would seem sensible to acknowledge that "no deal" is upon us.


Thanks ps200306, I didn't know that. There's a good explainer about Parliament's 'neutral terms' vote on a no-deal here:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... ote-brexit

It concludes (similar to you),

"The procedural niceties of 'no deal' only matter if the Government survives them. The Government claims that Parliament cannot force ministers to adopt a particular stance in the negotiations. In particular, the Government has argued that ministers could take the UK out of the EU without a deal, even if that was not the will of Parliament. In reality, however, the politics of a 'no deal' scenario, or a scenario in which the Government could not get its deal through Parliament, would be extremely fraught.

The Government would probably come under political pressure to resign, to subject itself to a vote of no confidence in the Commons, or to move a motion for an early general election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. What happened next would depend not on the precise terms of the EU Withdrawal Act, but on the UK’s Brexit policy, as it then stood, and on how the EU27 responded to it."

If - and that's a big if - the above happened, then a People's Vote scenario has to be the eventual outcome.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:42 pm 
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Just to lighten things up a bit.
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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:14 pm 
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bokonon wrote:
"The procedural niceties of 'no deal' only matter if the Government survives them. The Government claims that Parliament cannot force ministers to adopt a particular stance in the negotiations. In particular, the Government has argued that ministers could take the UK out of the EU without a deal, even if that was not the will of Parliament. In reality, however, the politics of a 'no deal' scenario, or a scenario in which the Government could not get its deal through Parliament, would be extremely fraught.

The Government would probably come under political pressure to resign, to subject itself to a vote of no confidence in the Commons, or to move a motion for an early general election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. What happened next would depend not on the precise terms of the EU Withdrawal Act, but on the UK’s Brexit policy, as it then stood, and on how the EU27 responded to it."

If - and that's a big if - the above happened, then a People's Vote scenario has to be the eventual outcome.

I don't see this at all. Theresa May is adamant that there must not be a second referendum. The Leave Campaign is equally adamant. Even most Tory Remainers agree. Corbyn and his followers want a general election, not another referendum. Most people accept that a rerun of the referendum would be a disaster for British democracy, not to mention that both political parties would suffer the ire of their Leave voters. There is simply no way a Tory government will sanction a referendum. In any case it would probably be too late. Britain is out of the EU on March 29th, at which point there is no Remain option, only an application to rejoin.

British law prevents a referendum happening in any less than six weeks -- 14 days for the referendum to be approved by the referendum commission, and a statutory minimum of 28 days before the vote can be held. But six months is much more likely than six weeks. A general election followed by a referendum would take us well into next year, at which stage EU membership would be receding in the rearview mirror. Not to mention that whatever government is in place will be devoting all its energies to crisis management in the wake of Brexit. Another referendum is probably less likely than martial law! :shock:

I don't think a "People's Vote" in any shape or form is a realistic option. With the latest EU rejection of May's backstop fudge, a crash out "No Deal" is by far the most likely option. There are two substantial groups in parliament that this would suit. The Raving Tory Loonie Leavers will take a Brexit by whatever means necessary. And Corbyn will be rubbing his hands in glee at the shit hitting the Tory fan, so that he can step in to pick up the pieces without having to piss off either his Leave or Remain constituents.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:01 am 
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CEO of Thyssen-Krupp UK speaks up:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... krupp-says
Quote:
“Once the UK leaves the customs union there will be barriers and possibly duties and tariffs to be paid. At the very least there will be paperwork. These are the very real concerns companies like us have,” Sergeant said.

“I think there’s a faction in the Tory party that just don’t care about business,” he said, referring to the former foreign secretary Boris Johnson’s “fuck business” remarks earlier this year.

And he warned of a wave of closures and job losses in the event of no deal.

“It’s not about me. I am 57 and will retire in a few years. I can retire to Spain. But I am from a working-class background and it is the working man who is going to be hit hardest. This is about the future generations. I am passionate that we do what we can to stop the damage, that is why I am speaking out,” he said.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:31 am 
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He's right - about all of it, including the fact that people in his position are going to be fine while younger and poorer people suffer. Boris and Rees-Mogg will also be graaaaand.

If you want some grim mid-morning reading, try Chis Grey's latest on the stubborn ignorance of leading thinkers in the Brexit movement. They were ignorant from the start but it's the refusal to engage with the detail and messy reality of executing Brexit - even at this very late stage - that is really stunning.
Quote:
Sometimes it is ludicrous, as with the revelation that convinced Brexiter MP Nadine Dorries was asking as recently as last January what a Customs Union was and, when it was explained, opined that as it sounded complicated that confirmed that Britain should leave. Or the belief of another Ultra, Andrew Bridgen, that English people are entitled to Irish passports. Or the mistaken claim, made by just about every pro-Brexit MP, but let’s take John Redwood as an example, that the UK currently conducts its non-EU trade on WTO terms.


Anyone, including civil servants and 'experts', who points out the complexities and risks involved in various Brexit futures is a fear-mongering Remoaner.

Given this ignorance - and the understandable ignorance of the electorate who follow the lead of David Davis and co. - a second referendum might not give a different result. Or it might give a different result but not by much. There could easily still be 40% who vote Leave.

I think they need to crash out with no deal and live the reality for a few months, then hold a referendum. In the meantime, maybe a Christmas-time crisis leading to an election could trigger an extension of Art. 50 so that the option of not leaving is still there for another year or so. UK MEPs are already trying to soften up other MEPs to give them an extension. At least that would avoid having a vote about rejoining the EU. If they leave and rejoin, they are unlikely to get the terms they have today (the rebate etc.).


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:40 pm 
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Senior Ministers Are Telling Theresa May To Go For A No-Deal Brexit If The EU Won't Make Concessions

Quote:
They are doubling down on their demands that the EU drops its Northern Ireland-only “backstop to the backstop” and that the deal must include a “break clause” mechanism that would allow the UK to unilaterally leave a UK-wide customs arrangement.


I can see why the backstop is unpalatable but what they are proposing - unilateral control over when it ends - is not a backstop at all. It's also not what they signed up to in December.

The hard brexiteers are saying in one breath that the backstop won't be necessary because when the future relationship is hammered out we'll be so closely aligned as to make it irrelevant, but in the next breath they want to 'break free' from EU regulations and strike bold new trade deals (i.e. they don't want/expect to be closely aligned - helpfully reminding the EU why a backstop will actually be essential.

Meanwhile, they have another problem. Even the UK-wide backstop - which most UK MPs don't seem to love - is only going to work for EU leaders if they are sure the UK will be following all the customs union and single market rules. They can't let them trade in the single market if they are not bound by labour, environmental and other pesky EU regulations, as the UK would then have a competitive advantage over other members of the single market.

The gas thing about it all is that whatever 'deal' is done or not done this year is not the end - not by a long shot. I don't think this is well understood in the media. This is just the deal on the Withdrawal Agreement. The future trading relationship is the next big bit and that is going to be another impact with reality for cake-and-eat-it Brexiteers.


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