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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:42 pm 
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Just to lighten things up a bit.
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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:14 pm 
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bokonon wrote:
"The procedural niceties of 'no deal' only matter if the Government survives them. The Government claims that Parliament cannot force ministers to adopt a particular stance in the negotiations. In particular, the Government has argued that ministers could take the UK out of the EU without a deal, even if that was not the will of Parliament. In reality, however, the politics of a 'no deal' scenario, or a scenario in which the Government could not get its deal through Parliament, would be extremely fraught.

The Government would probably come under political pressure to resign, to subject itself to a vote of no confidence in the Commons, or to move a motion for an early general election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. What happened next would depend not on the precise terms of the EU Withdrawal Act, but on the UK’s Brexit policy, as it then stood, and on how the EU27 responded to it."

If - and that's a big if - the above happened, then a People's Vote scenario has to be the eventual outcome.

I don't see this at all. Theresa May is adamant that there must not be a second referendum. The Leave Campaign is equally adamant. Even most Tory Remainers agree. Corbyn and his followers want a general election, not another referendum. Most people accept that a rerun of the referendum would be a disaster for British democracy, not to mention that both political parties would suffer the ire of their Leave voters. There is simply no way a Tory government will sanction a referendum. In any case it would probably be too late. Britain is out of the EU on March 29th, at which point there is no Remain option, only an application to rejoin.

British law prevents a referendum happening in any less than six weeks -- 14 days for the referendum to be approved by the referendum commission, and a statutory minimum of 28 days before the vote can be held. But six months is much more likely than six weeks. A general election followed by a referendum would take us well into next year, at which stage EU membership would be receding in the rearview mirror. Not to mention that whatever government is in place will be devoting all its energies to crisis management in the wake of Brexit. Another referendum is probably less likely than martial law! :shock:

I don't think a "People's Vote" in any shape or form is a realistic option. With the latest EU rejection of May's backstop fudge, a crash out "No Deal" is by far the most likely option. There are two substantial groups in parliament that this would suit. The Raving Tory Loonie Leavers will take a Brexit by whatever means necessary. And Corbyn will be rubbing his hands in glee at the shit hitting the Tory fan, so that he can step in to pick up the pieces without having to piss off either his Leave or Remain constituents.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:01 am 
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CEO of Thyssen-Krupp UK speaks up:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... krupp-says
Quote:
“Once the UK leaves the customs union there will be barriers and possibly duties and tariffs to be paid. At the very least there will be paperwork. These are the very real concerns companies like us have,” Sergeant said.

“I think there’s a faction in the Tory party that just don’t care about business,” he said, referring to the former foreign secretary Boris Johnson’s “fuck business” remarks earlier this year.

And he warned of a wave of closures and job losses in the event of no deal.

“It’s not about me. I am 57 and will retire in a few years. I can retire to Spain. But I am from a working-class background and it is the working man who is going to be hit hardest. This is about the future generations. I am passionate that we do what we can to stop the damage, that is why I am speaking out,” he said.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:31 am 
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He's right - about all of it, including the fact that people in his position are going to be fine while younger and poorer people suffer. Boris and Rees-Mogg will also be graaaaand.

If you want some grim mid-morning reading, try Chis Grey's latest on the stubborn ignorance of leading thinkers in the Brexit movement. They were ignorant from the start but it's the refusal to engage with the detail and messy reality of executing Brexit - even at this very late stage - that is really stunning.
Quote:
Sometimes it is ludicrous, as with the revelation that convinced Brexiter MP Nadine Dorries was asking as recently as last January what a Customs Union was and, when it was explained, opined that as it sounded complicated that confirmed that Britain should leave. Or the belief of another Ultra, Andrew Bridgen, that English people are entitled to Irish passports. Or the mistaken claim, made by just about every pro-Brexit MP, but let’s take John Redwood as an example, that the UK currently conducts its non-EU trade on WTO terms.


Anyone, including civil servants and 'experts', who points out the complexities and risks involved in various Brexit futures is a fear-mongering Remoaner.

Given this ignorance - and the understandable ignorance of the electorate who follow the lead of David Davis and co. - a second referendum might not give a different result. Or it might give a different result but not by much. There could easily still be 40% who vote Leave.

I think they need to crash out with no deal and live the reality for a few months, then hold a referendum. In the meantime, maybe a Christmas-time crisis leading to an election could trigger an extension of Art. 50 so that the option of not leaving is still there for another year or so. UK MEPs are already trying to soften up other MEPs to give them an extension. At least that would avoid having a vote about rejoining the EU. If they leave and rejoin, they are unlikely to get the terms they have today (the rebate etc.).


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:40 pm 
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Senior Ministers Are Telling Theresa May To Go For A No-Deal Brexit If The EU Won't Make Concessions

Quote:
They are doubling down on their demands that the EU drops its Northern Ireland-only “backstop to the backstop” and that the deal must include a “break clause” mechanism that would allow the UK to unilaterally leave a UK-wide customs arrangement.


I can see why the backstop is unpalatable but what they are proposing - unilateral control over when it ends - is not a backstop at all. It's also not what they signed up to in December.

The hard brexiteers are saying in one breath that the backstop won't be necessary because when the future relationship is hammered out we'll be so closely aligned as to make it irrelevant, but in the next breath they want to 'break free' from EU regulations and strike bold new trade deals (i.e. they don't want/expect to be closely aligned - helpfully reminding the EU why a backstop will actually be essential.

Meanwhile, they have another problem. Even the UK-wide backstop - which most UK MPs don't seem to love - is only going to work for EU leaders if they are sure the UK will be following all the customs union and single market rules. They can't let them trade in the single market if they are not bound by labour, environmental and other pesky EU regulations, as the UK would then have a competitive advantage over other members of the single market.

The gas thing about it all is that whatever 'deal' is done or not done this year is not the end - not by a long shot. I don't think this is well understood in the media. This is just the deal on the Withdrawal Agreement. The future trading relationship is the next big bit and that is going to be another impact with reality for cake-and-eat-it Brexiteers.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:27 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:16 pm 
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I think the EU27 are meeting next week to prepare for a no deal scenario. Even if a transition deal is reached I can see the flow of UK goods being subject to regulatory checks in lieu of the great global Britain that the Brexiters promised is awaiting them.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:30 pm 
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Breaking: *negotiators* have agreed a deal. Now the real fun begins - UK cabinet members to get text this evening, followed by cabinet in the morning to explain what it all means, and then probably a subsequent cabinet meeting 24 hours later where they can sign off/kill one another/quit/mutiny.

It's the beginning of the end of the beginning.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:38 pm 
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Rumours flying on both sides of the channel right now. Brussels "sources" suggesting the text of a technical withdrawal agreement has been finalised. In the UK it is rumoured that May is calling her cabinet members in one by one tonight, in advance of a meeting tomorrow to get collective cabinet agreement. Raab would then fly to Brussels to bring back the official agreement for consideration in London while EU leaders consider an emergency summit. No details as yet on what is being proposed for the backstop. In separate news the Labour motion to force the government to publish the attorney general's legal advice on the backstop will go through unopposed, as the DUP indicated they wouldn't support the government on it. EU27 ministers in Brussels tomorrow, ostensibly for "no deal" planning, but the rumour is they may be discussing something else.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:46 pm 
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Glad we're finally getting to crunch time. Feels like every week for the past few months have been the 'moment of truth', only for truth to retire back to its box for another few days.

So...predictions?

- Who will quit? (Raab? Fox? Leadsom? The Attorney General? All of the so-called Pizza Club?)

- Will the DUP wear it?

- If it's obvious by the weekend that this won't get through parliament, is it curtains for Mrs May?

Then what/who?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:48 pm 
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Cabinet meeting confirmed for tomorrow.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:50 pm 
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Sterling vs. Euro has shot to a seven month high.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:51 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
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Where are they getting the part about having 5 or 14 days to respond?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:55 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:

Where are they getting the part about having 5 or 14 days to respond?


These dates and the duration before which a responses is needed is written into the UK Withdrawal Act which was passed earlier this year. It's nothing to do with the EU.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:56 pm 
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It's in the UK's European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018.

Edit: pipped.

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