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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:31 am 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Jan 19, 2009
Posts: 217
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:

As evidenced above any rule or protocol may be amended or ignored at the stroke of a pen (bank bailout people?) meaning the 'crisis' around Brexit is and always has been, a political one.



Not exactly.

The speaker of the house in the UK has enormous discretionary power about the order of business in the house. Bercow didn't do anything illegal, nor did he do anything that has never been done before, nor did he break any rules that were written down. He just did something that hasn't been done in a while. Something that is fully within his authority to do. The rule that he broke is an unwritten one that says we generally don't do things that way, not that we can't, just that we generally don't do it that way.

Any bank guarantees that may or may not have been done were done within the full authority of government officials. There were no changes to the law and nothing illegal was done. The Irish government can guarantee any debts of anyone individual any time it wants. It has that full authority.

No one has the authority to make insurance contracts cross countries still be valid after Brexit. More importantly, no government has the authority to compel companies to ignore the law around safety standards and all other regulations concerning import/export of goods and services.

In order for things to continue smoothly someone has to actively decide to do something illegal.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:15 pm 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Oct 23, 2011
Posts: 669
I see Greg Clarke, UK Business Minister is latest to emphatically rule out Brexit with no deal, calling for cross party backbenchers to make sure it does not happen. The momentum against no deal does seem to be surging in the Commons.

Assuming May's deal is defeated the only choices available to UK are a) No Deal, b) ask the EU for an extension of Article 50 or c) unilaterally revoke Article 50.

At this stage I think it will be very tempting for the EU to refuse an extension of Article 50, gambling that a Commons majority will revoke Article 50.

I think this is exactly what the EU should do.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:28 pm 
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Too Big to Fail
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Barmiest Loon wrote:

At this stage I think it will be very tempting for the EU to refuse an extension of Article 50, gambling that a Commons majority will revoke Article 50.

I think this is exactly what the EU should do.

That will lead to troubles on UK streets, but it's not our fault successive UK governments have made us the whipping boy for all their faults.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:03 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3737
Location: Bogtrotterland!
catbear wrote:
Barmiest Loon wrote:

At this stage I think it will be very tempting for the EU to refuse an extension of Article 50, gambling that a Commons majority will revoke Article 50.

I think this is exactly what the EU should do.

That will lead to troubles on UK streets, but it's not our fault successive UK governments have made us the whipping boy for all their faults.

Extending or not extending, both will cause trouble.
But I doubt that either will bring people out on to the streets.

_________________
"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:11 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3737
Location: Bogtrotterland!
The Curious One wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:

As evidenced above any rule or protocol may be amended or ignored at the stroke of a pen (bank bailout people?) meaning the 'crisis' around Brexit is and always has been, a political one.



Not exactly.

The speaker of the house in the UK has enormous discretionary power about the order of business in the house. Bercow didn't do anything illegal, nor did he do anything that has never been done before, nor did he break any rules that were written down. He just did something that hasn't been done in a while. Something that is fully within his authority to do. The rule that he broke is an unwritten one that says we generally don't do things that way, not that we can't, just that we generally don't do it that way.

Any bank guarantees that may or may not have been done were done within the full authority of government officials. There were no changes to the law and nothing illegal was done. The Irish government can guarantee any debts of anyone individual any time it wants. It has that full authority.

No one has the authority to make insurance contracts cross countries still be valid after Brexit. More importantly, no government has the authority to compel companies to ignore the law around safety standards and all other regulations concerning import/export of goods and services.

In order for things to continue smoothly someone has to actively decide to do something illegal.

O would be inclined to think that the smoothest path Gould be to continue on using existing processes until they are superseded by new processes.
Thus ensure minimal disruption.
Politics may put a few spanners in this approach, EU needs Brexit to fail.

_________________
"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:22 am 
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Private Tenant

Joined: Sep 2, 2018
Posts: 25
Quote:
EU needs Brexit to fail.


Arguably Brexit has already failed and it had nothing to do with the EU.

Despite the rhetoric no one seriously expects that the UK is going to have an economic "Brexit Dividend". That's not the EU's fault, it was the PM that decided the UK's red lines to exit from the single market etc. and that has inevitable economic costs.

As for setting up the UK as an independent free trading nation, the the UK government has balked at the prospect of going it alone and looks like it it intends to cleave to the EU and its regulatory level.

While in terms of reducing immigration, there are signs of immigration substitution from the EU to ROW but still at the same numbers. Though that's still in flux so who knows.

Taken as a whole, we're firmly in BINO territory where the UK has swapped a formal relationship with the EU member states, mediated through the treaties, for an informal relationship with very similar results, except the UK will not be at the decision table.

As for the EU's approach to Brexit you may or may not like their 3 priorities of the UK's financial commitments, EU citizen rights, and the border, and the tacit position that single market membership means total acceptance of single market rules and ECJ oversight, but the EU has conducted itself transparently throughout the negotiations. There were no unexpected demands from the EU and if the UK was caught on the hop with the backstop it's hard to see how that can be laid at the EU's door.

In the Withdrawal Agreement the EU made a huge concession in allowing the UK to have the extendable EU membership-lite to 2021 and another in the total UK customs union so long as it is necessary. Further in the talks Barnier's team made clear to the UK that even out of the single market, the intention was to treat the UK's products extremely favorably with exceptionally low levels of regulatory checks.

The UK can point to hardball over totemic issues like France pushing fishing rights or Spain on Gibraltar but the EU could have been significantly more awkward in negotiations.

The EU was never going to cheer lead Brexit however if you had said to Brexit campaigners in 2015 that the EU's 3 demands were finances, citizens and the border and that the EU would publish those demands openly, I suspect they would have anticipated the UK would be in a really strong position.

That they're not says more about Westminster than Brussels.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:49 pm 
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First Time Buyer

Joined: Jul 24, 2018
Posts: 99
catbear wrote:
Barmiest Loon wrote:

At this stage I think it will be very tempting for the EU to refuse an extension of Article 50, gambling that a Commons majority will revoke Article 50.

I think this is exactly what the EU should do.

That will lead to troubles on UK streets, but it's not our fault successive UK governments have made us the whipping boy for all their faults.

Id agree. Delay looks the main option. Saying no to a delay would be one of the potential triggers for a No Deal


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:04 pm 
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IMF'd

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31893
Location: Tullamore
Another cracker from Tony Connelly:
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/011 ... -connelly/
Quote:
"There's a feeling that there’s a whole universe of possibilities," says one bewildered EU official, "and that every single outcome looks very, or moderately, unlikely. No outcome looks very likely. But it has to be one of those outcomes."


At this stage, we're at:

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"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

So long and thanks for all the fish.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:38 pm 
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Old Time Landlord

Joined: Jun 23, 2011
Posts: 387
My experience of working with Marketing people on big projects is that once it looks like a brief can be delivered upon, you can be sure it will change. You will always end up with some element of the the brief that cannot be delivered, be it a technical impossibility or just a schedule issue. The cynic in me has always though that this is intentional on the part of the Marketing people, if they got exactly what they wanted and the product was a flop, it's all on them, however when they can point to something from the brief that could not be delivered, they can point to that and say... if only we could have had that? Methinks there's a lot of this going on with BREXIT too, a large cohort of BREXITers who won't state categorically what they do want are making sure to point to things and say that's not what we wanted.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:50 am 
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IMF'd

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31893
Location: Tullamore
More on the precendence crisis:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46853689
Quote:
Currently, the government has precedence in the House of Commons. It controls how and when business, including legislation, is organised.

However, some backbenchers are seeking to wrest that control away from them.

If MPs can get an amendment to change how and when Commons business is arranged passed by a majority, backbench business could then take precedence over government business.

This could represent a threat not just to Brexit legislation but to the government's ability to govern, says Downing Street.

It would mean that without control over time in the Commons, the government has no control over parliamentary business, so cannot get through policies and legislation easily.

_________________
"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

So long and thanks for all the fish.


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